Excelsior
vs
Sparta Rotterdam
Eredivisie prediction
The model makes it 60% Excelsior, 20% draw, 20% Sparta Rotterdam — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Excelsior 2.33, Sparta Rotterdam 1.31.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Excelsior
- W4-0away to Cambuur7 August 2026
Sparta Rotterdam
- W3-1away to Telstar14 August 2026
- L0-1Feyenoord9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 8 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 May 2026Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 14 September 2025Excelsior 0–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 17 February 2024Sparta Rotterdam 4–2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- 1 October 2023Excelsior 2–1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 5 March 2023Excelsior 1–4 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- 14 January 2023Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 ExcelsiorEredivisie
Leading scorers
Excelsior
- N. Naujoks2 goals
- I. Yegoian1 goals1 assists
Sparta Rotterdam
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Excelsior carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.63 for Sparta Rotterdam. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Excelsior W; Sparta Rotterdam L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Excelsior and 1.31 for Sparta Rotterdam. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Excelsior rate 0.90 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sparta Rotterdam rate 0.88 and 1.37.
That points to 70% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Excelsior the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Excelsior against 1.31 for Sparta Rotterdam. Excelsior's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.37 for Sparta Rotterdam.