Necaxa vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Necaxa 1-3 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 53% Necaxa, 23% draw, 24% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 1.89, 4.35 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Necaxa at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12L. JimenezG
- 5NavesD
- 4A. PenaD
- 3A. OliverosD
- 13O. GonzalezM
- 21M. EspindolaM
- 6D. LeyvaM
- 8L. FaravelliM
- 88C. VargasM
- 9J. CarranzaF
- 10J. RuizF
- 1C. AndradeG
- 33R. MartinezD
- 15D. OchoaD
- 14M. ZaletaM
- 20F. MendezD
- 11J. P. Torres PatinoM
- 17R. CortezM
- 16P. PedrazaM
- 90J. ValenciaF
- 23K. MierG
- 55R. GonzalezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 17A. GarciaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 16J. MarquezM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 7N. IbanezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 49J. Diaz
- 12A. MontesD
- 22J. RodarteD
- 10A. MontanoM
- 70I. Silva
- 27B. GamboaF
- 21G. FernandezF
- 11C. EbereF
Form going into Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
Necaxa
- D1-1away to Pumas UNAM24 August 2026
- L1-2Leon18 August 2026
- L1-3away to Toluca3 August 2026
- W2-1Monterrey26 July 2026
- W2-1Atlante FC17 July 2026
Cruz Azul
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
- L2-3Atlante FC2 August 2026
- W2-1Puebla22 July 2026
- W3-2away to Atletico San Luis18 July 2026
What these results say
- Necaxa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Necaxa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Necaxa.
- Cruz Azul conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cruz Azul had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 8 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul
- 27 April 2026Cruz Azul 4–1 NecaxaLiga MX
- 22 October 2025Necaxa 1–1 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 29 January 2025Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 5 October 2024Cruz Azul 3–0 NecaxaLiga MX
- 16 March 2024Cruz Azul 1–2 NecaxaLiga MX
- 5 October 2023Necaxa 1–3 Cruz AzulLiga MX
Leading scorers: Necaxa and Cruz Azul
Necaxa
- J. Carranza6 goals2 assists
Cruz Azul
- N. Ibáñez4 goals1 assist
- G. Fernández4 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.