Club Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Tijuana 2-0 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Club Tijuana, 27% draw, 25% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Tijuana at 48% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 2A. RodriguezG
- 3R. FernandezD
- 12J. PorozoD
- 6A. GomezD
- 16A. VegaD
- 8I. TonaM
- 11F. GonzalezM
- 31Y. PadillaM
- 10G. MoraM
- 7A. PreciadoM
- 9M. El GhezouaniF
- 29J. HernandezG
- 4U. BilbaoD
- 18A. MejiaF
- 33P. N. Ortiz OrozcoD
- 34F. BoyaM
- 20A. ZapataM
- 26A. PerezM
- 17R. ArcigaF
- 202J. GonzalezF
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LopezD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5R. DuarteD
- 21U. AntunaD
- 22A. MedinaM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 14L. HerreraM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 35P. LaraG
- 19J. RivasD
- 13P. MonroyD
- 34A. AzuajeD
- 12C. CalderonD
- 45P. ViteM
- 15I. LunaM
- 20S. TrigosM
- 9G. MartinezF
Form going into Club Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM
Club Tijuana
- L2-5away to Guadalajara Chivas22 August 2026
Pumas UNAM
- D1-1Necaxa24 August 2026
- D0-0Club Queretaro16 August 2026
- W5-1away to FC Juarez1 August 2026
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Tijuana vs Pumas UNAM
- 28 February 2026Club Tijuana 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 2 November 2025Pumas UNAM 4–1 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 26 February 2025Club Tijuana 4–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 22 September 2024Pumas UNAM 1–0 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 10 March 2024Pumas UNAM 3–3 Club TijuanaLiga MX
- 1 July 2023Club Tijuana 2–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Tijuana and Pumas UNAM
Club Tijuana
- G. Mora5 goals1 assist
Pumas UNAM
- Juninho5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.