Atlante FC vs Leon Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlante FC 1-1 Leon.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Atlante FC, 28% draw, 32% Leon — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlante FC at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlante FC vs Leon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. JimenezG
- 29W. PortalesD
- 14C. AlfaroD
- 4E. TerceroD
- 44A. QuirosD
- 27A. EscobarD
- 16D. Gonzalez
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 30Martin SarrafioreM
- 9L. PuenteF
- 7Jhojan JulioF
- 33Garcia JordanG
- 3L. SanchezD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 32D. O. Bagui TobarD
- 37W. ClarD
- 25M. FernandezM
- 10O. VazquezM
- 15J. CharcopaF
- 20G. AdameM
- 23O. GarciaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 3J. GuevaraD
- 25P. BellonD
- 5S. VegasD
- 20R. EcheverriaM
- 8J. P. Dominguez ChontecoM
- 6F. Beltran Cruz
- 203J. LaraM
- 27D. CambindoF
- 11I. DiazF
- 181I. MartinezG
- 185C. Mora
- 4B. ColulaD
- 26S. ReyesM
- 29I. RodriguezM
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 15S. FierroM
- 22S. SantosM
- 16J. CortizoM
Form going into Atlante FC vs Leon
Atlante FC
- L0-2away to Tigres UANL22 August 2026
- D0-0Toluca15 August 2026
- W3-2away to Cruz Azul2 August 2026
- D1-1Club America25 July 2026
- L1-2away to Necaxa17 July 2026
Leon
- W2-0Monterrey22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Necaxa18 August 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Club Tijuana25 July 2026
- L2-3Atlas18 July 2026
What these results say
- Atlante FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atlante FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Leon scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlante FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 5 | Leon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atlante FC and Leon
Atlante FC
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Leon
- D. Arcila4 goals
- D. Cambindo3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.