Kilmarnock
vs
Motherwell
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Kilmarnock 1–2 Motherwell
The model makes it 33% Kilmarnock, 27% draw, 40% Motherwell — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.52, Motherwell 1.81.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Kilmarnock are bottom on 5 points from 7 games; Motherwell are 9th on 8 points from 7 games — Premiership.
- Kilmarnock are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Heart of Midlothian.
- Motherwell are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Dundee.
- Last 6 meetings: Motherwell 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Motherwell 4–0 Kilmarnock.
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Motherwell at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
Kilmarnock
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
- L0-4Dundee United29 August 2026
Motherwell
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
- D3-3away to St Mirren30 August 2026
What these results say
- Kilmarnock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
- Motherwell failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Motherwell had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
- 24 January 2026Motherwell 4–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 22 November 2025Kilmarnock 1–3 MotherwellPremiership
- 30 August 2025Motherwell 2–2 KilmarnockPremiership
- 14 May 2025Motherwell 3–0 KilmarnockPremiership
- 5 April 2025Kilmarnock 2–0 MotherwellPremiership
- 8 January 2025Kilmarnock 0–0 MotherwellPremiership
Leading scorers: Kilmarnock and Motherwell
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Motherwell
- A. Lowry2 goals1 assist
- Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goal2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kilmarnock carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.47 for Motherwell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Kilmarnock and 1.81 for Motherwell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kilmarnock rate 0.61 in attack and 2.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Motherwell rate 0.69 and 1.49.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kilmarnock a 0% chance of the title and Motherwell 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Motherwell the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Kilmarnock against 1.81 for Motherwell. Kilmarnock's attack/defence rating is 0.61/2.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.49 for Motherwell.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kilmarnock at home · Motherwell away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Kilmarnock 7, Motherwell 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kilmarnock
- at Falkirk24 Oct · Premiershipwin 28%
- at Dundee28 Oct · Premiershipwin 27%
- vs St Johnstone31 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
- at Celtic8 Nov · Premiershipwin 14%
Motherwell
- vs Heart of Midlothian25 Oct · Premiershipwin 35%
- at St Johnstone28 Oct · Premiershipwin 35%
- vs St Mirren31 Oct · Premiershipwin 48%
- at Dundee United7 Nov · Premiershipwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.