St Johnstone
vs
Dundee United
Premiership prediction
Our model says: St Johnstone 2–1 Dundee United
The model makes it 43% St Johnstone, 28% draw, 29% Dundee United — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: St Johnstone 1.79, Dundee United 1.27.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- St Johnstone are 6th on 8 points from 7 games; Dundee United are 8th on 8 points from 7 games — Premiership.
- St Johnstone have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Falkirk.
- Dundee United have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-0 win away to St Mirren.
- Last 6 meetings: Dundee United 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2025, ended Dundee United 1–0 St Johnstone.
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: St Johnstone vs Dundee United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into St Johnstone vs Dundee United
St Johnstone
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
Dundee United
- W3-0away to St Mirren19 September 2026
- D1-1Falkirk5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Motherwell2 September 2026
- W4-0away to Kilmarnock29 August 2026
- L0-2Dundee22 August 2026
What these results say
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | St Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Dundee United
- 12 April 2025Dundee United 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 26 December 2024St Johnstone 1–2 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 24 August 2024Dundee United 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 6 May 2023St Johnstone 1–0 Dundee UnitedPremiership
- 18 February 2023Dundee United 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
- 2 January 2023St Johnstone 0–1 Dundee UnitedPremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Dundee United
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler4 goals1 assist
Dundee United
- J. Randall2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
St Johnstone carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.32 for Dundee United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.79 goals for St Johnstone and 1.27 for Dundee United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
St Johnstone rate 0.61 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundee United rate 0.61 and 1.75.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives St Johnstone a 0.1% chance of the title and Dundee United 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives St Johnstone the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.79 expected goals for St Johnstone against 1.27 for Dundee United. St Johnstone's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.75 for Dundee United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
St Johnstone at home · Dundee United away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: St Johnstone 7, Dundee United 7.
Dundee United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); St Johnstone have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
St Johnstone
- at Rangers24 Oct · Premiershipwin 20%
- vs Motherwell28 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
- at Kilmarnock31 Oct · Premiershipwin 36%
- vs Dundee7 Nov · Premiershipwin 41%
Dundee United
- vs Aberdeen24 Oct · Premiershipwin 39%
- at Celtic28 Oct · Premiershipwin 16%
- vs Heart of Midlothian31 Oct · Premiershipwin 30%
- vs Motherwell7 Nov · Premiershipwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.