Hibernian
vs
Falkirk
Premiership prediction
Our model says: Hibernian 2–1 Falkirk
The model makes it 44% Hibernian, 28% draw, 28% Falkirk — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Hibernian 1.82, Falkirk 1.20.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Hibernian are 10th on 7 points from 7 games; Falkirk are 11th on 6 points from 7 games — Premiership.
- Hibernian are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Aberdeen.
- Falkirk are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw away to St Johnstone.
- Last 6 meetings: Hibernian 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Falkirk 1–3 Hibernian.
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Hibernian vs Falkirk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hibernian at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Hibernian vs Falkirk
Hibernian
- D1-1Aberdeen19 September 2026
- L0-1Kilmarnock15 September 2026
- L1-2away to St Johnstone6 September 2026
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
Falkirk
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Celtic29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hibernian conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Hibernian scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Falkirk.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Falkirk
- 9 May 2026Falkirk 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 24 January 2026Falkirk 4–1 HibernianPremiership
- 6 December 2025Hibernian 3–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 23 September 2025Falkirk 2–2 HibernianPremiership
- 12 July 2022Falkirk 1–0 HibernianLeague Cup
- 25 March 2017Hibernian 2–1 FalkirkChampionship
Leading scorers: Hibernian and Falkirk
Hibernian
- M. Boyle3 goals
- C. Wright2 goals
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Hibernian carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.34 for Falkirk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.82 goals for Hibernian and 1.20 for Falkirk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hibernian rate 0.64 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Falkirk rate 0.61 and 1.70.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hibernian a 0.4% chance of the title and Falkirk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hibernian the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Hibernian against 1.20 for Falkirk. Hibernian's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.7 for Falkirk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hibernian at home · Falkirk away
League matches only, Premiership, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premiership matches this season: Hibernian 7, Falkirk 7.
Falkirk score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Hibernian have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Hibernian
- vs Celtic25 Oct · Premiershipwin 28%
- at St Mirren28 Oct · Premiershipwin 37%
- vs Dundee31 Oct · Premiershipwin 43%
- at Aberdeen7 Nov · Premiershipwin 34%
Falkirk
- vs Kilmarnock24 Oct · Premiershipwin 46%
- at Aberdeen28 Oct · Premiershipwin 31%
- vs Celtic31 Oct · Premiershipwin 25%
- at Heart of Midlothian8 Nov · Premiershipwin 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.