3 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Celtic vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result

Celtic Park, Glasgow
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Celtic 1-0 Dundee.

Before kick-off the model made it 65% Celtic, 18% draw, 17% Dundee — fair odds of 1.54, 5.56 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Celtic at 65% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 275 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Celtic96%Draw4%Dundee0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽B. Nygrenassist: K. Tierney
52'
60'
🔁C. Reillyout: F. Robertson
60'
🔁S. Murrayout: A. Hay
🔁C. Duranout: J. Forrest
78'
🔁Yang Hyun-Junout: S. Tounekti
78'
80'
🔁J. Bevanout: A. Forrest
80'
🔁D. Wrightout: B. Halliday
🔁B. Nygrenout: L. McCowan
83'
🔁K. Tierneyout: C. Donovan
83'
Arne Engels
90+1'
90'
Ashley Hay

Match stats — Celtic vs Dundee

65%Possession35%
18Shots11
4On target3
9Corners4
2.55xG0.47

Goals against chances

Celtic1 from 2.55 xGless than the chances were worth
Dundee0 from 0.47 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Celtic 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. SinisaloG
  • 2A. JohnstonD
  • 20C. Carter-VickersD
  • 6A. TrustyD
  • 63K. TierneyD
  • 42C. McGregorM
  • 27A. EngelsM
  • 11C. DuranM
  • 8B. NygrenM
  • 13Yang Hyun-JunM
  • 9K. HoghF
Substitutes
  • 31R. DoohanG
  • 49J. ForrestM
  • 17S. TounektiF
  • 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
  • 41R. HatateM
  • 14L. McCowanM
  • 47D. MurrayD
  • 19C. OsmandF
  • 51C. DonovanD
Coach: Martin O'Neill
Dundee 4-4-2
  • 1O. GoodmanG
  • 7D. WrightD
  • 4R. AstleyD
  • 5O. Bevan
  • 3I. OdutayoD
  • 27J. BevanM
  • 48E. HamiltonM
  • 8R. FinniganM
  • 18C. ReillyM
  • 19J. WestleyF
  • 15S. MurrayF
Substitutes
  • 13K. O'HaraG
  • 17Z. BesirM
  • 14A. ForrestF
  • 2B. HallidayD
  • 10F. Robertson
  • 11A. Hay
  • 58E. CrombieM
  • 60R. BlandF
  • 52C. OosenbrughD
Coach: Steven Pressley

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Celtic6600143+1118
6Dundee621376+17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Celtic vs Dundee

  • 3 August 2026Celtic 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 5 April 2026Dundee 1–2 CelticPremiership
  • 7 February 2026Celtic 2–1 DundeeFA Cup
  • 3 December 2025Celtic 1–0 DundeePremiership
  • 19 October 2025Dundee 2–0 CelticPremiership
  • 5 February 2025Celtic 6–0 DundeePremiership

Leading scorers: Celtic and Dundee

Celtic

  • C. Durán3 goals3 assists
  • B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
  • K. Høgh3 goals

Dundee

  • J. Westley2 goals
  • J. Bevan1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.