3 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 26% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cracovia Krakow at 47% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cracovia Krakow0%Draw5%Pogon Szczecin95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Dijon Kameri
9'
35'
Linus Wahlqvist
46'
⚽Leo Borgesassist: P. Mukairu
Amir Al-Ammari
48'
🔁G. Henrikssonout: V. Burlet
54'
🔁B. Selanout: M. Minchev
55'
60'
🔁D. Churlinovout: M. Juwara
60'
🔁L. Wahlqvistout: H. Ali
60'
🔁M. Wojciechowskiout: F. Ulvestad
🔁K. Zahiroleslamout: W. Bogacz
67'
79'
🔁A. Szalaiout: B. Mendy
🔁M. Klichout: K. Smiglewski
83'
🔁O. Kakabadzeout: D. Pila
84'
86'
🔁F. Cuicout: M. Ndiaye
90'
⚽P. Mukairuassist: B. Mendy

Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin

59%Possession41%
19Shots11
7On target4
6Corners6
1.13xG0.93

Goals against chances

Cracovia Krakow0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Pogon Szczecin2 from 0.93 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cracovia Krakow 4-3-3
  • 13S. MadejskiG
  • 25O. KakabadzeD
  • 4G. HenrikssonD
  • 61B. TraoreD
  • 39M. PerkovicD
  • 43M. KlichM
  • 5B. Selan
  • 6A. Al AmmariM
  • 14A. HasicF
  • 18K. ZahiroleslamF
  • 70D. KameriF
Substitutes
  • 23H. RavasG
  • 77J. ChrapustaG
  • 7M. PraszelikM
  • 79D. PilaD
  • 28V. BurletD
  • 92M. SkoczylasM
  • 15K. GlikD
  • 17M. MinchevF
  • 21K. SmiglewskiF
Coach: Bartosz Grzelak
Pogon Szczecin 4-2-3-1
  • 77V. CojocaruG
  • 28L. WahlqvistD
  • 13D. KeramitsisD
  • 41A. SzalaiD
  • 4Leo BorgesD
  • 16P. DziczekM
  • 3K. AcostaM
  • 21D. ChurlinovM
  • 35M. WojciechowskiM
  • 18P. MukairuM
  • 10F. CuicF
Substitutes
  • 33A. PeskovicG
  • 83A. HolewinskiG
  • 11K. GrosickiM
  • 7M. JuwaraF
  • 6J. BieganskiM
  • 15H. AliD
  • 8F. UlvestadM
  • 23B. MendyD
  • 17J. NsameF
Coach: Oscar Garcia Junyent

Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin

Cracovia Krakow

  • D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026

Pogon Szczecin

  • L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Cracovia Krakow8224711-48
6Pogon Szczecin7331105+512

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin

  • 3 August 2026Cracovia Krakow 0–2 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 25 April 2026Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 25 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 14 March 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 14 September 2024Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 30 March 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin

Cracovia Krakow

  • A. Hasić3 goals1 assists

Pogon Szczecin

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.