Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 26% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cracovia Krakow at 47% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13S. MadejskiG
- 25O. KakabadzeD
- 4G. HenrikssonD
- 61B. TraoreD
- 39M. PerkovicD
- 43M. KlichM
- 5B. Selan
- 6A. Al AmmariM
- 14A. HasicF
- 18K. ZahiroleslamF
- 70D. KameriF
- 23H. RavasG
- 77J. ChrapustaG
- 7M. PraszelikM
- 79D. PilaD
- 28V. BurletD
- 92M. SkoczylasM
- 15K. GlikD
- 17M. MinchevF
- 21K. SmiglewskiF
- 77V. CojocaruG
- 28L. WahlqvistD
- 13D. KeramitsisD
- 41A. SzalaiD
- 4Leo BorgesD
- 16P. DziczekM
- 3K. AcostaM
- 21D. ChurlinovM
- 35M. WojciechowskiM
- 18P. MukairuM
- 10F. CuicF
- 33A. PeskovicG
- 83A. HolewinskiG
- 11K. GrosickiM
- 7M. JuwaraF
- 6J. BieganskiM
- 15H. AliD
- 8F. UlvestadM
- 23B. MendyD
- 17J. NsameF
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Lech Poznan25 July 2026
Pogon Szczecin
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Legia Warszawa24 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cracovia Krakow | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 12 |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin
- 25 April 2026Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 25 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 14 March 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 14 September 2024Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 30 March 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić52
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pogon Szczecin won 2–0 at Cracovia Krakow. The model had leaned towards a win for Cracovia Krakow at 47% and given a win for Pogon Szczecin 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Leo Borges 46' for Pogon Szczecin, P. Mukairu 90' for Pogon Szczecin. On expected goals it finished 1.13–0.93.