Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 2 · 3 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin

Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego

The model makes it 47% Cracovia Krakow, 27% draw, 26% Pogon Szczecin — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.52, Pogon Szczecin 1.05.

Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Model insights

52%
Both teams to score
48%
Over 2.5 goals
52%
Under 2.5 goals
Most likely scorelines1-1 13%1-0 11%2-1 9%

Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin

  • 25 April 2026Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 25 October 2025Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 14 March 2025Pogon Szczecin 5–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 14 September 2024Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
  • 30 March 2024Pogon Szczecin 3–1 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
  • 23 September 2023Cracovia Krakow 1–5 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cracovia Krakow the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.05 for Pogon Szczecin. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.64/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.26 for Pogon Szczecin.