Real Sociedad II
vs
Mallorca
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Real Sociedad II 1–2 Mallorca
The model makes it 33% Real Sociedad II, 29% draw, 38% Mallorca — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad II 1.31, Mallorca 1.50.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Real Sociedad II vs Mallorca
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Real Sociedad II wins, grey are draws, red are Mallorca wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mallorca at 38% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Real Sociedad II vs Mallorca
Real Sociedad II
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
- D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Mallorca
- W2-0Sabadell13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Eldense5 September 2026
- W3-0AD Ceuta FC30 August 2026
- L0-2away to Granada CF24 August 2026
- W2-0Valladolid15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 3 | Mallorca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad II and Mallorca
Real Sociedad II
- Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assists
- Dani Díaz1 goals2 assists
Mallorca
- Fuentes3 goals
- Álex Sala1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Real Sociedad II carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.73 for Mallorca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Real Sociedad II and 1.50 for Mallorca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Real Sociedad II rate 0.72 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mallorca rate 0.88 and 1.12.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mallorca the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Real Sociedad II against 1.5 for Mallorca. Real Sociedad II's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.12 for Mallorca.