Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Celta de Vigo II 4-1 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Celta de Vigo II, 26% draw, 34% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Celta de Vigo II at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 3K. RibesD
- 18Joel LópezD
- 2P. GavianM
- 29M. SobralM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 11Ángel ArcosM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 17H. CuencaM
- 31Raúl BlancoM
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 23G. MillerD
- 4S. M. NdiayeD
- 14Jan OliverasD
- 1Aitor FragaG
- 22RupérezD
- 15I. CalderonD
- 5K. KitaD
- 3Jon BaldaD
- 16Gorka GorosabelM
- 14Tomás CarbonellM
- 6A. LebarbierM
- 7Dani DíazF
- 20Sydney OsazuwaF
- 17Lander AstiazaránF
- 34Andrews AdjabengF
- 23Unax AgoteD
- 8Ibai AguirreM
- 24A. UnaxD
- 21Jon EceizabarrenaM
- 38Xuban FernandezF
- 35Daniel Galilea TellaecheG
- 36Hodei GaritaonaindiaF
- 2Jon GarroD
Form going into Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
Celta de Vigo II
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Sporting Gijon4 October 2026
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC5 September 2026
Real Sociedad II
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Granada CF4 October 2026
- L1-3away to AD Ceuta FC26 September 2026
- L0-1Mallorca19 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra12 September 2026
- D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
What these results say
- Celta de Vigo II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Celta de Vigo II conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Sociedad II scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad II | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta de Vigo II vs Real Sociedad II
- 24 May 2025Real Sociedad II 2–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 11 January 2025Celta de Vigo II 2–1 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 4 May 2024Real Sociedad II 0–0 Celta de Vigo IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 26 November 2023Celta de Vigo II 1–2 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: Celta de Vigo II and Real Sociedad II
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin81
Real Sociedad II
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta de Vigo II beat Real Sociedad II 4–1. The model had made a win for Celta de Vigo II its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ángel Arcos 12' for Celta de Vigo II, Alvaro·Marin Sesma (penalty) 33' for Celta de Vigo II, Alvaro·Marin Sesma 36' for Celta de Vigo II, Aldrine Kibet 59' for Celta de Vigo II, Jon Balda 87' for Real Sociedad II. On expected goals it finished 1.98–1.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Celta de Vigo II a 21.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.3% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 25.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 4.4 points lower than before the match.
For Real Sociedad II the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 10.1% going in: 6.7% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.9%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Celta de Vigo II v Real Sociedad II has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 40% / 26% / 34%: the biggest move is Celta de Vigo II's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Celta de Vigo II win40%▲ +6
- Draw26%▼ −3
- Real Sociedad II win34%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.