AD Ceuta FC
vs
Sabadell
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: AD Ceuta FC 0–1 Sabadell
The model makes it 26% AD Ceuta FC, 29% draw, 45% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC 1.03, Sabadell 1.67.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sabadell at 45% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
Sabadell
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
- W1-0Almeria29 August 2026
- D0-0away to Castellón23 August 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 1 |
| 7 | Sabadell | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Sabadell
- N. Gioacchini3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
AD Ceuta FC carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.63 for Sabadell. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.03 goals for AD Ceuta FC and 1.67 for Sabadell. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AD Ceuta FC rate 0.59 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sabadell rate 0.73 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AD Ceuta FC a 0% chance of the title and Sabadell 1.5%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sabadell the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.03 expected goals for AD Ceuta FC against 1.67 for Sabadell. AD Ceuta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.14 for Sabadell.