AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: AD Ceuta FC 1-2 Sabadell.
Before kick-off the model made it 29% AD Ceuta FC, 30% draw, 41% Sabadell — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sabadell at 41%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 4Albert CaparrósD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 34D. MasD
- 3José MatosD
- 8KukiM
- 15JoaquínM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 19E. SevikyanF
- 14Y. BodigerM
- 28Abraham Bueno EspinosaM
- 10Marino IllescasM
- 5Adrián LapeñaD
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
- 18Alex PetxarromanD
- 29O. SadikF
- 1Diego FuoliG
- 14Óscar SanzD
- 5Arthur BonaldoD
- 6Edgar GonzálezD
- 4Miki CodinaD
- 7Ton RipollM
- 20UrriM
- 21Alain RibeiroM
- 22Q. LiameedM
- 23J. PriegoF
- 10Ángel BaenaF
- 25Marc VidalG
- 12Gastón VallesF
- 33Joaquim Utgés AlmedaF
- 19Y. RahmaniF
- 8Pere PonsM
- 13J. OrtegaG
- 9N. ObolskiyF
- 27José Luis CatalàD
- 24Eneko AguilarM
Form going into AD Ceuta FC vs Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Castellón4 October 2026
- W3-1Real Sociedad II26 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Burgos11 September 2026
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
Sabadell
All competitions we cover
- D0-0FC Andorra3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Celta de Vigo II26 September 2026
- W3-1Oviedo20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mallorca13 September 2026
- W3-2Cordoba7 September 2026
What these results say
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sabadell conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 5 |
| 13 | Sabadell | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: AD Ceuta FC and Sabadell
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Sabadell
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sabadell won 2–1 at AD Ceuta FC. The model had made a win for Sabadell its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ángel Baena 26' for Sabadell, Jordi Escobar 45+5' for AD Ceuta FC, Ángel Baena 80' for Sabadell. Sent off: Edgar Gonzalez (Sabadell) 53'. On expected goals it finished 0.95–1.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AD Ceuta FC a 57.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 49.3% after a win, 57.4% after a draw, 61.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.8%, 4.8 points higher than before the match.
For Sabadell the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 14.5% going in: 17.2% after a win, 12.1% after a draw, 11.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.2%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on AD Ceuta FC v Sabadell has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 26% / 29% / 45% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 29% / 30% / 41%: the biggest move is Sabadell's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- AD Ceuta FC win29%▲ +3
- Draw30%▲ +1
- Sabadell win41%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.