Kolos Kovalivka
vs
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
The model makes it 41% Kolos Kovalivka, 30% draw, 29% Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Kolos Kovalivka 1.43, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.02.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kolos Kovalivka are 13th on 5 points from 6 games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are 6th on 8 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Kolos Kovalivka have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Kudrivka.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Livyi Bereh.
- Last 3 meetings: Kolos Kovalivka 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4–0 Kolos Kovalivka.
All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Kolos Kovalivka at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Kolos Kovalivka
- W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026
- L0-2Karpaty11 September 2026
- D2-2away to Kryvbas KR5 September 2026
- D0-0Obolon'-Brovar28 August 2026
- L1-2away to Dynamo Kyiv16 August 2026
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- L0-2Livyi Bereh19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Dynamo Kyiv14 September 2026
- D0-0Bukovyna6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Kudrivka29 August 2026
- D0-0Veres Rivne14 August 2026
What these results say
- Kolos Kovalivka failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Epitsentr Dunayivtsi failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kolos Kovalivka | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
| 6 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Kolos Kovalivka vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- 7 March 2026Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4–0 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 30 August 2025Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Epitsentr DunayivtsiPremier League
- 26 July 2025Kolos Kovalivka 5–0 Epitsentr DunayivtsiFriendlies Clubs
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Kolos Kovalivka carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.31 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.02 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kolos Kovalivka rate 0.53 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi rate 0.56 and 1.66.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Kolos Kovalivka the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.02 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Kolos Kovalivka's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.66 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kolos Kovalivka at home · Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kolos Kovalivka 6, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 7.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kolos Kovalivka
- at Shakhtar Donetsk17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 13%
- at Veres Rivne24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Polessya31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Bukovyna7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 29%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
- at Karpaty17 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 19%
- vs FC Kharkiv24 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Zorya Luhansk31 Oct · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Kryvbas KR7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 40%
- at Chornomorets21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.