10 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Eldense vs Cordoba Segunda División prediction & result

Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat, Elda
Referee: Marta Huerta de Aza, Spain
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Eldense 2-1 Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Eldense, 25% draw, 27% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Eldense at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Eldense5%Draw91%Cordoba4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Rubén González Alvesassist: Daniel Esmoris Tasende
17'
•Adnane Ghailan Benktib
Carlos Guirao Mora
41'
🔁Alejandro Ibarrondoout: Jesús Clemente Corcho
45'
55'
🔁Diego Percanout: Enol Rodríguez Heres
🔁Manuel Nietoout: Javi Martínez
60'
Justin Smith
60'
61'
Ismael Ruiz Sánchez
⚽Jorge Rastrojoassist: Carlos Guirao Mora
62'
68'
🔁Eder Garciaout: Damián Cáceres Rodríguez
68'
🔁Diego Briout: Kevin Villodres Medina
🔁Juan Larios Lópezout: Iker Recio Ortega
71'
🔁Carlos Guirao Moraout: Jorge Martin Camunas
71'
🔁Justin Smithout: Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo
84'
87'
Nelson Monte
88'
🔁Kevin Villodres Medinaout: ibai sanz
88'
🔁Adnane Ghailan Benktibout: Théo Zidane
Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo
90+1'
90+1'
Daniel Budesca
⚽Fidel (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Eldense vs Cordoba

44%Possession56%
14Shots12
4On target6
6Corners4
2.87xG1.41

Goals against chances

Eldense2 from 2.87 xGless than the chances were worth
Cordoba1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Eldense 4-4-2
  • 13JuanpaG
  • 19A. IbarrondoD
  • 5Alex SerradellD
  • 4F. SmandD
  • 3Juan LariosD
  • 10FidelM
  • 14J. SmithM
  • 15Carlos GuiraoM
  • 33Aingeru OlabarrietaM
  • 7Jorge RastrojoF
  • 11Manu NietoF
Substitutes
  • 36D. BernabeuG
  • 17Jesús ClementeD
  • 6Borja CalvoM
  • 23Jordi MartínD
  • 24Javi MartínezM
  • 34J. OlaizolaD
  • 29Dinis RodriguesF
  • 2Iker RecioD
  • 22J. YandaD
Coach: Javi Calleja
Cordoba 4-3-3
  • 1Iker ÁlvarezG
  • 30Daniel BudescaD
  • 20Nélson MonteD
  • 16Rubén AlvesD
  • 3Dani TasendeD
  • 28Eder GarcíaM
  • 8Isma RuizM
  • 14Adnane GhailanM
  • 23Cristian CarracedoF
  • 9PercanF
  • 11Diego BriF
Substitutes
  • 24S. El JebariF
  • 5Juan GutiérrezD
  • 4Álex MartínD
  • 7T. ZidaneM
  • 10Kevin VillodresF
  • 15V. SanchezF
  • 13Guilherme FernandesG
  • 19Ibai SanzF
  • 18Enol RodríguezF
Coach: Iván Ania

Form going into Eldense vs Cordoba

Eldense

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Oviedo2 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Burgos27 September 2026
  • L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
  • D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026

Cordoba

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Tenerife5 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Valladolid27 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
  • L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
  • L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026

What these results say

  • Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Eldense134271319-614
11Cordoba136162222019

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Eldense vs Cordoba

  • 26 April 2025Eldense 1–1 CordobaSegunda División
  • 26 October 2024Cordoba 2–0 EldenseSegunda División

Leading scorers: Eldense and Cordoba

Eldense

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Cordoba

GoalsAssists

  • Percan61
  • Eder García42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Eldense beat Cordoba 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Eldense at 48%. The goals: Rubén González Alves 11' for Cordoba, Jorge Rastrojo 62' for Eldense, Fidel (penalty) 90+6' for Eldense. On expected goals it finished 2.87–1.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Eldense a 11.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.3% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 14.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 2.4 points lower than before the match.

For Cordoba the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 26.7% going in: 21.0% after a win, 24.9% after a draw, 29.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.5%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Eldense v Cordoba has moved

First published on 26 Sep at 38% / 29% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 25% / 27%: the biggest move is Eldense's chance of winning, up 10 points.

  1. Eldense win48%▲ +10
  2. Draw25%▼ −4
  3. Cordoba win27%▼ −6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.