Eldense
vs
Cordoba
Segunda División prediction
Our model says: Eldense 2–1 Cordoba
The model makes it 38% Eldense, 29% draw, 33% Cordoba — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Eldense 1.51, Cordoba 1.30.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Eldense vs Cordoba
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Eldense at 38% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 2175 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Eldense vs Cordoba
Eldense
- L1-2Eibar19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sporting Gijon13 September 2026
- D0-0Mallorca5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Leganes29 August 2026
- D2-2Cadiz22 August 2026
Cordoba
- W2-1away to Albacete18 September 2026
- L0-2Almeria12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026
- L1-3Granada CF30 August 2026
- W2-1Girona21 August 2026
What these results say
- Eldense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cordoba scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Eldense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Cordoba | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Eldense vs Cordoba
- 26 April 2025Eldense 1–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 26 October 2024Cordoba 2–0 EldenseSegunda División
Leading scorers: Eldense and Cordoba
Eldense
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Cordoba
- Percan2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Eldense carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.44 for Cordoba. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Eldense and 1.30 for Cordoba. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Eldense rate 0.56 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cordoba rate 0.76 and 1.77.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cordoba, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Eldense a 0.1% chance of the title and Cordoba 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Eldense the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Eldense against 1.3 for Cordoba. Eldense's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.77 for Cordoba.