Čelik
vs
Borac Banja Luka
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Čelik 0–1 Borac Banja Luka
The model makes it 22% Čelik, 26% draw, 52% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 4.55, 3.85 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Čelik 1.02, Borac Banja Luka 1.81.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Borac Banja Luka are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Čelik are 6th on 9 points from 9 games; Borac Banja Luka are 2nd on 22 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Čelik are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to FK Sarajevo.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to BSK Banja Luka.
- Last 5 meetings: Borac Banja Luka 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Borac Banja Luka 2–0 Čelik.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borac Banja Luka at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka
Čelik
- D0-0FK Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D1-1away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo18 September 2026
- W3-2Radnik Bijeljina11 September 2026
- L2-3away to BSK Banja Luka5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sloga Doboj1 September 2026
Borac Banja Luka
- W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sloga Doboj16 September 2026
- W1-0Zrinjski12 September 2026
- L0-1away to FK Sarajevo6 September 2026
What these results say
- Čelik failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Borac Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 9 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 7 | +10 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Čelik
Chance to finish in the top four · 28% today
Borac Banja Luka
Chance to win the league · 48% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Čelik vs Borac Banja Luka
- 23 August 2026Borac Banja Luka 2–0 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 9 February 2025Borac Banja Luka 3–0 ČelikCup
- 1 December 2019Čelik 1–2 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
- 1 September 2019Borac Banja Luka 3–1 ČelikPremijer Liga
- 21 April 2018Čelik 1–1 Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga
The two sides
Čelik carry a model rating of 6.14 against 6.58 for Borac Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for Čelik and 1.81 for Borac Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Čelik rate 0.50 in attack and 2.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borac Banja Luka rate 0.73 and 1.25.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Čelik a 0% chance of the title and Borac Banja Luka 48.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Čelik against 1.81 for Borac Banja Luka. Čelik's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.25 for Borac Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Čelik at home · Borac Banja Luka away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Čelik 9, Borac Banja Luka 9.
Čelik score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 1 there.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Čelik have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Čelik
- at Velež7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Sloga Doboj21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 58%
- vs BSK Banja Luka28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 51%
Borac Banja Luka
- at Mjallby AIF5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 40%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.