Radnik Bijeljina
vs
Siroki Brijeg
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnik Bijeljina 2–1 Siroki Brijeg
The model makes it 41% Radnik Bijeljina, 26% draw, 33% Siroki Brijeg — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radnik Bijeljina 1.69, Siroki Brijeg 1.47.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radnik Bijeljina are 9th on 8 points from 10 games; Siroki Brijeg are 4th on 13 points from 10 games — Premijer Liga.
- Radnik Bijeljina are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to FK Sarajevo.
- Siroki Brijeg have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Sloga Doboj.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Siroki Brijeg 2–1 Radnik Bijeljina.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnik Bijeljina at 41% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg
Radnik Bijeljina
- D1-1FK Sarajevo17 October 2026
- W3-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo11 October 2026
- D4-4away to BSK Banja Luka19 September 2026
- L2-3away to Čelik11 September 2026
- L1-2Sloga Doboj5 September 2026
Siroki Brijeg
- W1-0away to Sloga Doboj16 October 2026
- D0-0away to Velež9 October 2026
- L2-3Borac Banja Luka20 September 2026
- D1-1BSK Banja Luka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zrinjski6 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Bijeljina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Bijeljina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Radnik Bijeljina.
- Siroki Brijeg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 8 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radnik Bijeljina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 53% today
Siroki Brijeg
Chance to finish in the top four · 25% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Radnik Bijeljina vs Siroki Brijeg
- 22 August 2026Siroki Brijeg 2–1 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 25 May 2026Siroki Brijeg 4–0 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 4 April 2026Radnik Bijeljina 2–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 8 December 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–3 Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga
- 26 September 2025Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 5 April 2025Radnik Bijeljina 1–1 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnik Bijeljina carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.11 for Siroki Brijeg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Radnik Bijeljina and 1.47 for Siroki Brijeg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnik Bijeljina rate 0.50 in attack and 2.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Siroki Brijeg rate 0.47 and 2.08.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Siroki Brijeg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnik Bijeljina the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Radnik Bijeljina against 1.47 for Siroki Brijeg. Radnik Bijeljina's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.08 for Siroki Brijeg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnik Bijeljina at home · Siroki Brijeg away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Radnik Bijeljina 10, Siroki Brijeg 10.
Radnik Bijeljina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Siroki Brijeg have let in 1 there.
Siroki Brijeg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Radnik Bijeljina have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Radnik Bijeljina
- at Borac Banja Luka7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 8%
- vs Velež21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 43%
- at Sloga Doboj28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
- vs Čelik2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 39%
Siroki Brijeg
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 41%
- at FK Sarajevo21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 20%
- vs Zrinjski28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 23%
- at BSK Banja Luka2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.