Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
vs
Zrinjski
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–2 Zrinjski
The model makes it 26% Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, 26% draw, 48% Zrinjski — fair odds of 3.85, 3.85 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.14, Zrinjski 1.75.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
One-sided: Zrinjski are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 5th on 13 points from 10 games; Zrinjski are top on 24 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to BSK Banja Luka.
- Zrinjski have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 6-2 win away to Sloga Doboj.
- Last 6 meetings: Zrinjski 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended Zrinjski 2–0 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Zrinjski at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- D1-1away to BSK Banja Luka17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Radnik Bijeljina11 October 2026
- D1-1Čelik18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Sloga Doboj13 September 2026
- W2-0FK Sarajevo9 September 2026
Zrinjski
- W6-2away to Sloga Doboj11 October 2026
- W2-0Velež19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Borac Banja Luka12 September 2026
- W2-1Siroki Brijeg6 September 2026
- W3-1BSK Banja Luka1 September 2026
What these results say
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zeljeznicar Sarajevo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Zrinjski conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 13 |
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Chance to finish in the top four · 39% today
Zrinjski
Chance to win the league · 51% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Zrinjski
- 23 August 2026Zrinjski 2–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 1 May 2026Zrinjski 2–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 2 March 2026Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–3 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 9 November 2025Zrinjski 2–1 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
- 24 August 2025Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–0 ZrinjskiPremijer Liga
- 19 April 2025Zrinjski 5–0 Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga
The two sides
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo carry a model rating of 6.16 against 6.52 for Zrinjski. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and 1.75 for Zrinjski. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo rate 0.48 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zrinjski rate 0.76 and 1.46.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zeljeznicar Sarajevo a 0% chance of the title and Zrinjski 51.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Zrinjski the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo against 1.75 for Zrinjski. Zeljeznicar Sarajevo's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.46 for Zrinjski.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home · Zrinjski away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 10, Zrinjski 9.
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Zrinjski have let in 2 there.
Zrinjski score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
- at Siroki Brijeg7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 31%
- vs Borac Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 23%
- at Velež28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 33%
- vs Sloga Doboj2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 58%
Zrinjski
- vs FK Sarajevo7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 54%
- at BSK Banja Luka21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 56%
- at Siroki Brijeg28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.