Sloga Doboj
vs
Velež
Premijer Liga prediction
Our model says: Sloga Doboj 0–1 Velež
The model makes it 33% Sloga Doboj, 31% draw, 36% Velež — fair odds of 3.03, 3.23 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sloga Doboj 1.07, Velež 1.13.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Sloga Doboj and Velež are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sloga Doboj are 8th on 9 points from 10 games; Velež are bottom on 8 points from 9 games — Premijer Liga.
- Sloga Doboj have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- Velež have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Siroki Brijeg.
- Last 6 meetings: Velež 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Velež 2–0 Sloga Doboj.
More Bosnian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sloga Doboj vs Velež
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velež at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sloga Doboj vs Velež
Sloga Doboj
- L0-1Siroki Brijeg16 October 2026
- L2-6Zrinjski11 October 2026
- L0-2away to FK Sarajevo20 September 2026
- L1-2Borac Banja Luka16 September 2026
- D1-1Zeljeznicar Sarajevo13 September 2026
Velež
- D0-0Siroki Brijeg9 October 2026
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
What these results say
- Sloga Doboj did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sloga Doboj conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Velež failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Velež had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sloga Doboj
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 89% today
Velež
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
From our Premijer Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Sloga Doboj vs Velež
- 22 August 2026Velež 2–0 Sloga DobojPremijer Liga
- 15 April 2026Sloga Doboj 0–3 VeležCup
- 11 April 2026Velež 0–0 Sloga DobojPremijer Liga
- 8 April 2026Velež 3–1 Sloga DobojCup
- 13 December 2025Sloga Doboj 1–2 VeležPremijer Liga
- 4 October 2025Velež 2–0 Sloga DobojPremijer Liga
The two sides
Sloga Doboj carry a model rating of 5.88 against 6.05 for Velež. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Sloga Doboj and 1.13 for Velež. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sloga Doboj rate 0.33 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Velež rate 0.40 and 1.99.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sloga Doboj, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Velež the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sloga Doboj against 1.13 for Velež. Sloga Doboj's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.99 for Velež.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sloga Doboj at home · Velež away
League matches only, Premijer Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premijer Liga matches this season: Sloga Doboj 10, Velež 9.
Velež score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Sloga Doboj have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sloga Doboj
- vs BSK Banja Luka7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 34%
- at Čelik21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 17%
- vs Radnik Bijeljina28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 36%
- at Zeljeznicar Sarajevo2 Dec · Premijer Ligawin 17%
Velež
- vs Čelik7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 38%
- at Radnik Bijeljina21 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 30%
- vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo28 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.