Samsunspor vs Göztepe Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Samsunspor 3-3 Göztepe.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Samsunspor, 20% draw, 33% Göztepe — fair odds of 2.13, 5.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Samsunspor at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Samsunspor vs Göztepe
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. KocukG
- 2J. MendesD
- 24T. BorevkovicD
- 6A. B. DiabbateD
- 17L. TomassonD
- 29A. MakoumbouM
- 5C. YukselM
- 20Y. KayanM
- 30S. JarjuF
- 9MariusF
- 11E. KilincF
- 25B. BayazitG
- 13E. UstunG
- 34G. GuarinoD
- 72M. TanD
- 23E. Albak
- 42A. SekongoM
- 8S. OnurM
- 70T. BulbulM
- 14F. KayaF
- 25L. GugeshashviliG
- 4T. AltikardesD
- 3Allan GodoiD
- 13E. YildirimD
- 2A. KurtulanM
- 6A. MatosM
- 20N. MiroshiM
- 15A. CherniM
- 8A. AntunesF
- 7Andre HenriqueF
- 22S. ArmstrongF
- 1A. OzcimenG
- 33S. OzturkG
- 16O. BayrakD
- 10E. BekirogluM
- 5RhaldneyM
- 11Guilherme LuizF
- 9Juan SantosF
- 17G. BayrakdarF
- 39JandersonF
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Samsunspor | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 26 | -15 | 7 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Samsunspor vs Göztepe
- 16 May 2026Samsunspor 3–0 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 21 December 2025Göztepe 2–0 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 3 March 2025Göztepe 2–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
- 28 September 2024Samsunspor 4–3 GöztepeSüper Lig
- 7 April 2023Göztepe 1–0 Samsunspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Samsunspor and Göztepe
Samsunspor
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Göztepe
GoalsAssists
- Juan71
- André Henrique41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Samsunspor and Göztepe drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Samsunspor at 47% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: A. Matos 3' for Göztepe, Marius (penalty) 30' for Samsunspor, E. Kilinc 43' for Samsunspor, S. Armstrong 46' for Göztepe, E. Bekiroglu 65' for Göztepe, C. Yuksel 90' for Samsunspor. On expected goals it finished 2.74–1.89.