16 August 2026, 14:30 UTC

Nacional vs Estoril Primeira Liga prediction & result

Funchal
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Nacional 2-0 Estoril.

Before kick-off the model made it 63% Nacional, 21% draw, 16% Estoril — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Nacional at 63%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Nacional99%Draw1%Estoril0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Xeka
32'
Xeka
32'
Xeka
Matheus Dias
51'
63'
🔁A. Lacximicantout: T. Brito
63'
🔁R. Guitaneout: F. Garcia
🔁M. Baezaout: Deivison
66'
🔁Matheus Diasout: S. Gavriel
66'
⚽Ze Vitorassist: Leo Santos
68'
75'
🔁R. Sanchezout: P. Carvalho
75'
🔁F. Medranoout: G. Costa
⚽Leo Santosassist: Daniel Junior
77'
F. Soares
79'
🔁Daniel Juniorout: D. I. de la Cruz
81'
82'
I. Sierra
85'
🔁A. Tsounguiout: Jandro
85'
Ferro
🔁Pablo Ruanout: J. Silva
88'

Match stats — Nacional vs Estoril

59%Possession41%
20Shots9
3On target5
7Corners4
2.08xG0.82

Goals against chances

Nacional2 from 2.08 xGabout what the chances were worth
Estoril0 from 0.82 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Nacional 3-4-2-1
  • 1Renato MarinG
  • 34Léo SantosD
  • 6Matheus DiasD
  • 38Ze VitorD
  • 52Wesley GasolinaM
  • 28LizieroM
  • 22Filipe SoaresM
  • 7Markus JensenM
  • 8Miguel BaezaF
  • 10Daniel JúniorF
  • 99Pablo Messias CardozoF
Substitutes
  • 11Stavros GavrielM
  • 88Deivison Souza BritoM
  • 2Daniel De la CruzD
  • 26Joel SilvaM
  • 13João GonçalvesG
  • 50KevynG
  • 14Ivanildo FernandesD
  • 33Francisco GonçalvesD
  • 55Pedro SilvaD
Coach: Giao Joao
Estoril 4-2-3-1
  • 1Joel RoblesG
  • 2Ricard SánchezD
  • 4FerroD
  • 15Ismael Sierra ArnalD
  • 3Fernando MedranoD
  • 8XekaM
  • 5Antef TsounguiM
  • 99Rafik GuitaneM
  • 12João CarvalhoM
  • 7André LacximicantM
  • 14Yanis BegraouiF
Substitutes
  • 90Tiago BritoM
  • 98Fabrício GarciaF
  • 22Pedro CarvalhoD
  • 18Gonçalo CostaD
  • 6Jandro OrellanaM
  • 23Diogo DiasG
  • 16Martin TurkG
  • 42Jordan ArnolinD
  • 19Tiago ParenteD
Coach: Vasco Matos

Form going into Nacional vs Estoril

Nacional

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to Santa Clara10 August 2026

Estoril

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Nacional113171119-810
18Estoril10028519-142

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Nacional vs Estoril

  • 15 March 2026Nacional 0–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 26 October 2025Estoril 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 15 February 2025Nacional 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 15 September 2024Estoril 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
  • 25 July 2021Nacional 1–2 EstorilTaça da Liga

The full Nacional vs Estoril record →

The result against the call

Nacional beat Estoril 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Nacional at 63%. The goals: Ze Vitor 68' for Nacional, Leo Santos 77' for Nacional. Sent off: Xeka (Estoril) 32'. On expected goals it finished 2.08–0.82.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.