Nacional
vs
Estoril
Primeira Liga prediction
The model makes it 48% Nacional, 25% draw, 27% Estoril — fair odds of 2.08, 4.00 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nacional 1.68, Estoril 1.20.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Nacional
No earlier matches on record this season.
Estoril
- D1-1Famalicao7 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where they stand. Nacional has not started the league season yet. Full tables
Head-to-head: Nacional vs Estoril
- 15 March 2026Nacional 0–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 26 October 2025Estoril 1–1 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 15 February 2025Nacional 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- 15 September 2024Estoril 1–0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 25 July 2021Nacional 1–2 EstorilTaça da Liga
Leading scorers
Nacional
No league goals recorded yet.
Estoril
- Y. Begraoui1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nacional carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.62 for Estoril. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Estoril D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Nacional and 1.20 for Estoril. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional rate 0.73 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estoril rate 0.77 and 1.22.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 57% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Nacional against 1.2 for Estoril. Nacional's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.22 for Estoril.