Famalicao vs Maritimo Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Famalicao 1-2 Maritimo.
Before kick-off the model made it 14% Famalicao, 19% draw, 67% Maritimo — fair odds of 7.14, 5.26 and 1.49.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Maritimo at 67%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Famalicao vs Maritimo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25L. CarevicG
- 17R. PinheiroD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 28Pedro BondoD
- 6T. Van de LooiM
- 14M. De AmorimM
- 7SorrisoM
- 19P. MoreiraM
- 11O. ArandaM
- 70G. KoutsiasF
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 2GarciaD
- 5L. MeyerD
- 30V. Serafimovic
- 36M. MattaraD
- 8M. PenaM
- 21T. Szucs
- 23Gil DiasF
- 10P. SantosF
- 13A. PastorG
- 2Igor JuliaoD
- 4R. FernandesD
- 44R. CorreiaD
- 23P. HenriqueD
- 18V. DanilovicM
- 6R. AndradeM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 11S. BouzaidiF
- 17A. ButzkeF
- 10M. TejonF
- 1G. TabuacoG
- 30F. VieitesG
- 15T. TavaresD
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 16F. SilvaM
- 66I. AyumaM
- 68N. BatistaM
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 27S. BambaF
Form going into Famalicao vs Maritimo
Famalicao
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Estoril7 August 2026
Maritimo
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Casa Pia8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Famalicao vs Maritimo
- 22 April 2023Famalicao 3–2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 6 November 2022Maritimo 0–0 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 20 February 2022Maritimo 0–1 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
- 18 September 2021Famalicao 0–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 21 March 2021Maritimo 0–4 FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Famalicao and Maritimo
Famalicao
GoalsAssists
- G. Koutsias50
Maritimo
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Maritimo won 2–1 at Famalicao. The model had made a win for Maritimo its most likely outcome, at 67%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: F. van Breemen 8' for Famalicao, S. Bouzaidi 21' for Maritimo, M. Boakye 90' for Maritimo. On expected goals it finished 0.58–1.61.