Cardiff
vs
Stoke City
Championship prediction
The model makes it 54% Cardiff, 25% draw, 21% Stoke City — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Cardiff 1.71, Stoke City 0.99.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Cardiff
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Stoke City
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Stoke City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Stoke City
- 12 April 2025Cardiff 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 8 February 2025Stoke City 3–3 CardiffFA Cup
- 14 December 2024Stoke City 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 24 February 2024Cardiff 2–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 4 November 2023Stoke City 0–0 CardiffChampionship
- 22 April 2023Cardiff 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cardiff carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.46 for Stoke City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Cardiff D-D; Stoke City L-L.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Cardiff and 0.99 for Stoke City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cardiff rate 0.73 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Stoke City rate 0.55 and 1.24.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 52% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cardiff the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Cardiff against 0.99 for Stoke City. Cardiff's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.24 for Stoke City.