Cardiff vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result
Final score: Cardiff 1-1 Stoke City.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cardiff, 29% draw, 32% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cardiff at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cardiff vs Stoke City
Line-ups
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 11O. TannerM
- 8J. MoylanM
- 16C. WillockM
- 9Y. SalechF
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 30H. TyrerG
- 40N. AnyadikeD
- 45Cian AshfordF
- 44R. KpakioD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 47C. RobinsonF
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 16B. WilmotD
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 5L. GrahamD
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 13J. DevennyM
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 21L. BombinoM
- 15G. HirstF
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 17E. BocatD
- 11L. CisséF
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 42M. ManhoefF
- 7J. McGlynnM
- 4B. PearsonM
- 19T. RigoM
- 43F. AndersonD
Form going into Cardiff vs Stoke City
Cardiff
- L0-2away to Portsmouth5 September 2026
- L1-2away to QPR2 September 2026
- D2-2Sheffield Utd29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Derby22 August 2026
- D1-1Wrexham17 August 2026
Stoke City
- W4-0Charlton5 September 2026
- W1-0Norwich1 September 2026
- L1-4away to Wolves29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Southampton22 August 2026
- L1-2Swansea15 August 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Stoke City had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs Stoke City
- 8 September 2026Cardiff 1–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 12 April 2025Cardiff 0–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 8 February 2025Stoke City 3–3 CardiffFA Cup
- 14 December 2024Stoke City 2–2 CardiffChampionship
- 24 February 2024Cardiff 2–1 Stoke CityChampionship
- 4 November 2023Stoke City 0–0 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Cardiff and Stoke City
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan52
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- E. Galbraith32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.