Bolton
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
The model makes it 22% Bolton, 30% draw, 48% West Ham — fair odds of 4.55, 3.33 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (16%).
Expected goals: Bolton 0.78, West Ham 1.30.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Bolton
- D0-0away to QPR22 August 2026
- W2-1Preston15 August 2026
West Ham
- L1-2Charlton22 August 2026
- D2-2away to Burnley16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Bolton vs West Ham
- 19 September 2017West Ham 3–0 BoltonLeague Cup
- 9 April 2011Bolton 3–0 West HamPremier League
- 21 August 2010West Ham 1–3 BoltonPremier League
The two sides
Bolton carry a model rating of 6.51 against 6.82 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Bolton W-D; West Ham D-L.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.78 goals for Bolton and 1.30 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Bolton rate 0.41 in attack and 0.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 0.95 and 1.01.
That points to 35% for over two and a half goals and 40% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 0-1 (16%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bolton, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Bolton against 1.3 for West Ham. Bolton's attack/defence rating is 0.41/0.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.95/1.01 for West Ham.