Southampton
vs
Swansea
Championship prediction
The model makes it 48% Southampton, 26% draw, 26% Swansea — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Southampton 1.61, Swansea 1.12.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Southampton
- W3-1Stoke City22 August 2026
- L1-2away to Watford16 August 2026
Swansea
- D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | -1 |
| 9 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Swansea
- 18 April 2026Swansea 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 18 October 2025Southampton 0–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 12 January 2025Southampton 3–0 SwanseaFA Cup
- 20 January 2024Swansea 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
- 26 December 2023Southampton 5–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 8 January 2022Swansea 2–3 SouthamptonFA Cup
Leading scorers
Southampton
- C. Larin2 goals
Swansea
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.54 for Swansea. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Southampton L-W; Swansea W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Southampton and 1.12 for Swansea. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 0.65 in attack and 1.13 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Swansea rate 0.71 and 1.31.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Swansea, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 595 correct results out of 1255 settled predictions (47%), with 114 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Southampton against 1.12 for Swansea. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.13 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.31 for Swansea.