Southampton vs Swansea Championship prediction & result
Final score: Southampton 3-1 Swansea.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Southampton, 29% draw, 29% Swansea — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Southampton vs Swansea
Line-ups
- 1Daniel PeretzG
- 14J. BreeD
- 15N. Wood-GordonD
- 13K. SchlotterbeckD
- 3R. ManningD
- 4F. DownesM
- 30J. Ward-ProwseM
- 18T. FellowsM
- 10F. AzazM
- 7Léo ScienzaM
- 9C. LarinF
- 11L. DobbinF
- 26Cameron BraggM
- 6Z. AbbottD
- 23S. EdozieM
- 25G. LongG
- 27K. MatsukiM
- 28D. MubamaF
- 34WelingtonD
- 5J. StephensD
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 23S. WelshD
- 14J. TymonD
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 30Joseph OkopuM
- 8E. JustM
- 49M. YeoM
- 9Z. VipotnikF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
- 46S. EustáquioM
- 1A. FisherG
- 33A. IdahF
- 2J. KeyD
- 20Tiago ParenteD
- 35RonaldF
- 3J. SeeltD
- 7M. WidellM
Form going into Southampton vs Swansea
Southampton
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
Swansea
- D0-0Wrexham5 September 2026
- W2-0Watford1 September 2026
- W3-0away to Derby29 August 2026
- D0-0Sheffield Utd22 August 2026
- W2-1away to Stoke City15 August 2026
What these results say
- Swansea went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Swansea kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 13 |
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Southampton vs Swansea
- 8 September 2026Southampton 3–1 SwanseaChampionship
- 18 April 2026Swansea 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 18 October 2025Southampton 0–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 12 January 2025Southampton 3–0 SwanseaFA Cup
- 20 January 2024Swansea 1–3 SouthamptonChampionship
- 26 December 2023Southampton 5–0 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: Southampton and Swansea
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.