Wisla Krakow
vs
Wisla Plock
The model makes it 74% Wisla Krakow, 13% draw, 13% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.35, 7.69 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Wisla Krakow 3.44, Wisla Plock 1.52.
Both teams to score: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%, under 2.5: 13%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Wisla Krakow
- L3-4away to Piast Gliwice1 August 2026
- W2-1GKS Katowice26 July 2026
Wisla Plock
- D0-0Widzew Łódź31 July 2026
- W2-1away to Raków Częstochowa26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wisla Krakow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Wisla Plock | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Wisla Krakow vs Wisla Plock
- 2 May 2025Wisla Krakow 1–3 Wisla PlockI Liga
- 27 October 2024Wisla Plock 1–3 Wisla KrakowI Liga
- 13 April 2024Wisla Plock 1–1 Wisla KrakowI Liga
- 1 October 2023Wisla Krakow 0–0 Wisla PlockI Liga
- 14 January 2023Wisla Plock 1–5 Wisla KrakowFriendlies Clubs
- 25 April 2022Wisla Krakow 3–4 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
Leading scorers
Wisla Krakow
- Jordi Sánchez3 goals
- M. Božić2 goals1 assists
Wisla Plock
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wisla Krakow carry a model rating of 6.89 against 6.59 for Wisla Plock. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Wisla Krakow W-L; Wisla Plock W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.44 goals for Wisla Krakow and 1.52 for Wisla Plock. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wisla Krakow rate 1.36 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wisla Plock rate 0.79 and 1.34.
That points to 87% for over two and a half goals and 76% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 2-1 (6%), 4-1 (6%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Wisla Plock, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 202 correct results out of 432 settled predictions (47%), with 39 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 74%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.44 expected goals for Wisla Krakow against 1.52 for Wisla Plock. Wisla Krakow's attack/defence rating is 1.36/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.34 for Wisla Plock.