Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Burgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% Burgos, 28% draw, 24% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Burgos at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
Line-ups
- 13Ander CanteroG
- 23Alberto DadieD
- 5Marcelo ExpósitoD
- 8GregoD
- 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
- 14David GonzálezM
- 20José GrageraM
- 12Unai VencedorM
- 19Javi LlabrésM
- 7Jon KarrikaburuF
- 16Curro SánchezF
- 17Mario CanteroM
- 9Álex ForésF
- 4P. GaldamesM
- 1Bruno IribarneG
- 24S. LencinasM
- 15Oier LuengoD
- 22Brais MartínezD
- 36I. MartinezD
- 11Víctor MollejoF
- 1Pedro LópezG
- 16RedruD
- 6Carlos HernándezD
- 14Y. BodigerD
- 3José MatosD
- 8KukiM
- 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
- 17Mawuli MensahM
- 19E. SevikyanF
- 29O. SadikF
- 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
- 13Guille VallejoG
- 20Álex MeléndezM
- 34D. MasM
- 27U. KonareF
- 15JoaquínM
- 9Jordi EscobarF
- 26Arick BetancourtM
- 2Toni AbadD
Form going into Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
- D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
- L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
- W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026
AD Ceuta FC
All competitions we cover
- L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
- L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
- L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026
What these results say
- Burgos failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Burgos conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- AD Ceuta FC failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Burgos | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 20 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC
- 1 April 2026Burgos 1–1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
- 29 November 2025AD Ceuta FC 1–0 BurgosSegunda División
Leading scorers: Burgos and AD Ceuta FC
Burgos
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
AD Ceuta FC
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Escobar41
- Carlos Hernández40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Burgos beat AD Ceuta FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Burgos its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Carlos Hernández 14' for AD Ceuta FC, Alberto Dadie 20' for Burgos, Jon Karrikaburu 48' for Burgos, Carlos Redruello Nimo (own goal) 81' for Burgos.
How the call on Burgos v AD Ceuta FC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 46% / 28% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Burgos's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Burgos win48%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- AD Ceuta FC win24%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.