11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC Segunda División prediction & result

Burgos
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Burgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Burgos, 28% draw, 24% AD Ceuta FC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Burgos at 48% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Carlos Hernándezassist: Kuki Zalazar
⚽Alberto Dadieassist: Jon Karrikaburu
20'
27'
Chidiebere Gabriel Okoro
⚽Jon Karrikaburuassist: David Gonzalez
48'
José Gragera
62'
66'
Kuki Zalazar
🔁Jon Karrikaburuout: Álex Forés
66'
🔁Unai Vencedorout: Pablo Galdames
66'
🔁Javier Llabrés Expositoout: Kevin Appin
66'
71'
🔁Edgar Sevikyanout: Umaru Konare
🔁José Grageraout: Oier Luengo Redondo
75'
81'
🔁Mawuli Kwame Mensah Vadzeout: José Antonio Abad Martínez
81'
🔁José Matosout: Joaquín Felipe González Rodríguez
81'
🔁Chidiebere Gabriel Okoroout: Alejandro Meléndez
🔁Curroout: Santiago Lencina
81'
⚽Carlos Redruello Nimo (OG)
81'
84'
🔁Alejandro Camacho Ramírezout: Jordi Escobar
David Gonzalez
86'
Alberto Dadie
90'

Match stats — Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC

47%Possession53%
7Shots12
2On target3
1Corners7

Line-ups

Burgos 4-4-2
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 23Alberto DadieD
  • 5Marcelo ExpósitoD
  • 8GregoD
  • 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
  • 14David GonzálezM
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 19Javi LlabrésM
  • 7Jon KarrikaburuF
  • 16Curro SánchezF
Substitutes
  • 17Mario CanteroM
  • 9Álex ForésF
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
  • 24S. LencinasM
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 11Víctor MollejoF
Coach: Sergio Francisco
AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
  • 1Pedro LópezG
  • 16RedruD
  • 6Carlos HernándezD
  • 14Y. BodigerD
  • 3José MatosD
  • 8KukiM
  • 32Chidiebere Gabriel OkoroM
  • 17Mawuli MensahM
  • 19E. SevikyanF
  • 29O. SadikF
  • 7Alejandro Camacho RamírezF
Substitutes
  • 13Guille VallejoG
  • 20Álex MeléndezM
  • 34D. MasM
  • 27U. KonareF
  • 15JoaquínM
  • 9Jordi EscobarF
  • 26Arick BetancourtM
  • 2Toni AbadD
Coach: José Juan Romero

Form going into Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC

Burgos

  • D0-0away to Oviedo6 September 2026
  • D2-2Real Sociedad II31 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Sporting Gijon23 August 2026
  • W3-2Cordoba16 August 2026

AD Ceuta FC

  • L0-2Celta de Vigo II5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Mallorca30 August 2026
  • L0-2Las Palmas22 August 2026
  • L1-5away to FC Andorra15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Burgos522186+28
22AD Ceuta FC5005215-130

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Burgos vs AD Ceuta FC

  • 1 April 2026Burgos 1–1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
  • 29 November 2025AD Ceuta FC 1–0 BurgosSegunda División

Leading scorers: Burgos and AD Ceuta FC

Burgos

  • Álex Forés2 goals

AD Ceuta FC

No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.