Cordoba
vs
Almeria
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cordoba 0-2 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Cordoba, 28% draw, 33% Almeria — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cordoba 1.66, Almeria 1.43.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Cordoba vs Almeria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cordoba at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cordoba vs Almeria
Cordoba
- L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026
- L1-3Granada CF30 August 2026
- W2-1Girona21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Burgos16 August 2026
Almeria
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
- W3-0Eldense17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Cordoba | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 3 |
| 6 | Almeria | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Almeria
- 7 August 2026Cordoba 0–4 AlmeriaFriendlies Clubs
- 21 February 2026Almeria 2–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Cordoba 1–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 12 January 2025Cordoba 0–3 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 26 November 2024Almeria 4–0 CordobaSegunda División
- 23 July 2022Almeria 1–2 CordobaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Cordoba and Almeria
Cordoba
- Percan1 goals1 assists
- Eder García1 goals1 assists
Almeria
- B. Cipenga1 goals3 assists
- Léo Baptistão1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.52 for Almeria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Cordoba and 1.43 for Almeria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cordoba rate 0.74 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Almeria rate 0.72 and 1.38.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Almeria, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cordoba the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cordoba against 1.43 for Almeria. Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.38 for Almeria.