Cordoba vs Almeria Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cordoba 0-2 Almeria.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Cordoba, 27% draw, 28% Almeria — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cordoba at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cordoba vs Almeria
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Guilherme FernandesG
- 27E. MunozD
- 4Alex MartinD
- 16R. AlvesD
- 3D. TasendeD
- 22Y. DiarraM
- 8I. RuizM
- 28E. GarciaM
- 23C. CarracedoF
- 9PercanF
- 11D. BriF
- 1I. AlvarezG
- 5J. GutierrezD
- 30D. BudescaD
- 21C. AlbarranD
- 7T. ZidaneM
- 6D. CaceresM
- 18E. RodriguezF
- 19I. SanzF
- 15V. SanchezF
- 1A. FernandezG
- 2M. LunaD
- 19Rodrigo ElyD
- 18F. BoniniD
- 15L. LeloD
- 29S. DzodicM
- 33Q. JunyentM
- 12Leo BaptistaoM
- 14Javier MunozM
- 17B. CipengaM
- 24M. de la FuenteF
- 31A. YaakobishviliG
- 5J. PulidoD
- 3A. MunozD
- 21ChumiD
- 22D. ChirinoD
- 11S. ArribasM
- 6M. VesgaM
- 10N. MelamedM
- 23A. EmbarbaF
Form going into Cordoba vs Almeria
Cordoba
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Sabadell7 September 2026
- L1-3Granada CF30 August 2026
- W2-1Girona21 August 2026
- L2-3away to Burgos16 August 2026
Almeria
All competitions we cover
- W3-2Cadiz6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sabadell29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Tenerife23 August 2026
- W3-0Eldense17 August 2026
What these results say
- Cordoba scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Cordoba conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Cordoba had three goals or more.
- Almeria conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cordoba vs Almeria
- 7 August 2026Cordoba 0–4 AlmeriaFriendlies Clubs
- 21 February 2026Almeria 2–1 CordobaSegunda División
- 19 October 2025Cordoba 1–1 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 12 January 2025Cordoba 0–3 AlmeriaSegunda División
- 26 November 2024Almeria 4–0 CordobaSegunda División
- 23 July 2022Almeria 1–2 CordobaFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Cordoba and Almeria
Cordoba
GoalsAssists
- Percan41
- Eder García41
Almeria
GoalsAssists
- Miguel de la Fuente71
- B. Cipenga34
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Almeria won 2–0 at Cordoba. The model had leaned towards a win for Cordoba at 45% and given a win for Almeria 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: B. Cipenga 52' for Almeria, Thalys 70' for Almeria. Sent off: Quim Junyent (Almeria) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 1.38–0.52.
How the call on Cordoba v Almeria has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Cordoba's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Cordoba win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Almeria win28%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.