Girona
vs
Castellón
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 1-2 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Girona, 27% draw, 22% Castellón — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Girona 1.97, Castellón 0.91.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Model insights: Girona vs Castellón
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 51% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Girona vs Castellón
Girona
- W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Castellón
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Girona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 7 |
| 1 | Castellón | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Castellón
- 29 July 2026Girona 3–3 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
- 21 February 2021Girona 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 24 October 2020Castellón 0–1 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Castellón
Girona
- Y. Asprilla4 goals
- Abel Ruiz1 goals1 assists
Castellón
- Ousmane Camara2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
The two sides
Girona carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.53 for Castellón. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Girona and 0.91 for Castellón. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Girona rate 0.93 in attack and 1.09 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Castellón rate 0.69 and 1.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Castellón, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Girona the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Girona against 0.91 for Castellón. Girona's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.3 for Castellón.