Girona vs Castellón Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Girona 1-2 Castellón.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Girona, 27% draw, 22% Castellón — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Girona at 51% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Girona vs Castellón
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13P. GazzanigaG
- 16A. FrancesD
- 5D. LopezD
- 38H. Zamorano
- 11A. MorenoD
- 8F. BeltranM
- 24I. GonzalezM
- 22Y. AsprillaM
- 9A. RuizM
- 17B. GilM
- 19V. VanatF
- 25V. KrapyvtsovG
- 1S. PuigG
- 4J. BonarD
- 3M. MoreyD
- 2A. MuminD
- 33M. FurtadoD
- 6D. van de BeekM
- 29L. KouroumaM
- 14I. MoranteM
- 13R. MatthysG
- 2Juanjo NietoD
- 5A. JimenezD
- 4A. SienraD
- 12L. AlcazarD
- 26R. RegoM
- 6M. OrozcoM
- 8BarriM
- 17F. CastilloM
- 10I. SueroF
- 9O. CamaraF
- 1A. SaipiG
- 22J. MellotD
- 11F. CeccheriniD
- 23A. GarciaF
- 27A. GalaM
- 25J. VlakM
- 7R. SanchezF
- 14I. CordobaM
- 16A. JakobsenF
Form going into Girona vs Castellón
Girona
All competitions we cover
- W2-0away to Sporting Gijon5 September 2026
- W5-2Las Palmas29 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cordoba21 August 2026
- D1-1Leganes16 August 2026
Castellón
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Albacete6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Celta de Vigo II31 August 2026
- D0-0Sabadell23 August 2026
- W1-0away to Real Sociedad II14 August 2026
What these results say
- Girona scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Girona conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Girona.
- Castellón went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Castellón won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Castellón scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 21 |
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Girona vs Castellón
- 29 July 2026Girona 3–3 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
- 21 February 2021Girona 2–1 CastellónSegunda División
- 24 October 2020Castellón 0–1 GironaSegunda División
Leading scorers: Girona and Castellón
Girona
GoalsAssists
- V. Vanat52
- Y. Asprilla51
Castellón
GoalsAssists
- Israel Suero52
- Ousmane Camara41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Castellón won 2–1 at Girona. The model had leaned towards a win for Girona at 51% and given a win for Castellón 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: H. Zamorano 7' for Girona, A. Sienra 81' for Castellón, A. Garcia 86' for Castellón. Sent off: Abel Ruíz (Girona) 52'. On expected goals it finished 1.14–3.71.