Cadiz vs Las Palmas Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Cadiz 0-1 Las Palmas.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Cadiz, 28% draw, 31% Las Palmas — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cadiz at 41% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Cadiz vs Las Palmas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13J. EzkietaG
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaD
- 14B. KovacevicD
- 4J. CastroD
- 22C. GutierrezD
- 5M. DoueM
- 23D. RodriguezM
- 20B. VazquezM
- 19IzetaM
- 10J. OntiverosM
- 9A. PascualF
- 1D. GilG
- 6M. FernandezD
- 2B. de JesusD
- 3S. ArribasD
- 33M. RiveraM
- 18JandroM
- 24I. SanchezM
- 28D. A. Zarate HidalgoM
- 25G. PetitF
- 13J. CaroG
- 25V. PezzolesiD
- 15J. HerzogD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 5E. ClementeD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 6I. GonzalezM
- 24Ivan JaimeM
- 10JeseF
- 14M. FusterF
- 35A. SuarezG
- 41J. ValverdeG
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 42R. SaiahD
- 40A. PerezD
- 20K. RodriguezM
- 16M. AcimovicM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 29E. RomeroF
Form going into Cadiz vs Las Palmas
Cadiz
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Almeria6 September 2026
- D1-1Valladolid30 August 2026
- D2-2away to Eldense22 August 2026
- D0-0Celta de Vigo II15 August 2026
Las Palmas
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Leganes4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Girona29 August 2026
- W2-0away to AD Ceuta FC22 August 2026
- W2-1Albacete16 August 2026
What these results say
- Cadiz did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Cadiz scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Cadiz conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Las Palmas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Cadiz vs Las Palmas
- 8 August 2026Cadiz 1–3 Las PalmasFriendlies Clubs
- 27 April 2026Cadiz 1–2 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 5 October 2025Las Palmas 1–0 CadizSegunda División
- 24 July 2025Cadiz 2–1 Las PalmasFriendlies Clubs
- 19 May 2024Cadiz 0–0 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 17 December 2023Las Palmas 1–1 CadizLa Liga
Leading scorers: Cadiz and Las Palmas
Cadiz
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Cordero41
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Las Palmas won 1–0 at Cadiz. The model had leaned towards a win for Cadiz at 41% and given a win for Las Palmas 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: E. Clemente 60' for Las Palmas. On expected goals it finished 0.49–2.87.