FC Andorra
vs
Real Sociedad II
Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: FC Andorra 1-3 Real Sociedad II.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% FC Andorra, 29% draw, 34% Real Sociedad II — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Andorra 1.49, Real Sociedad II 1.37.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: FC Andorra vs Real Sociedad II
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Andorra at 37% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Andorra vs Real Sociedad II
FC Andorra
- L0-1away to Valladolid5 September 2026
- L0-1Eibar30 August 2026
- L2-4away to Celta de Vigo II24 August 2026
- W5-1AD Ceuta FC15 August 2026
Real Sociedad II
- D1-1Tenerife5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Burgos31 August 2026
- W2-1away to Albacete22 August 2026
- L0-1Castellón14 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Andorra | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Real Sociedad II
- 7 February 2026FC Andorra 1–2 Real Sociedad IISegunda División
- 11 October 2025Real Sociedad II 3–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
- 13 April 2025Real Sociedad II 2–1 FC AndorraPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
- 27 October 2024FC Andorra 1–1 Real Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Real Sociedad II
FC Andorra
- Hugo López2 goals
- Nacho Quintana2 goals
Real Sociedad II
- Gorka Gorosabel2 goals1 assists
- Dani Díaz1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Andorra carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.51 for Real Sociedad II. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for FC Andorra and 1.37 for Real Sociedad II. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Andorra rate 0.65 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Real Sociedad II rate 0.72 and 1.41.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Real Sociedad II, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Andorra the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC Andorra against 1.37 for Real Sociedad II. FC Andorra's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.41 for Real Sociedad II.