Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Union Berlin, 32% draw, 29% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Union Berlin at 39% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
Line-ups
- 1F. RønnowG
- 18J. JuranovićD
- 14L. QuerfeldD
- 2F. UduokhaiD
- 15T. RotheD
- 6A. KemleinM
- 20M. AebischerM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 8R. KhediraM
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongF
- 29E. Latte LathF
- 24R. SkovM
- 21T. SkarkeM
- 13A. SchäferM
- 31M. RaabG
- 27M. LjubiÄiÄF
- 19J. HabererM
- 49Linus GutherF
- 28C. TrimmelD
- 4Z. Van Den BoschD
- 1L. KariusG
- 5T. BeckerD
- 25N. KatićD
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 21D. LjubičićM
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 13S. TanakaM
- 8R. GosensM
- 19K. KaramanM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 20J. AdamuF
- 39M. WöberD
- 43M. AyhanD
- 14J. BachmannM
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 10E. DžekoF
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 22K. MüllerG
- 38L. VozarM
Form going into Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
Union Berlin
All competitions we cover
- L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
- D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026
FC Schalke 04
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
- L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Union Berlin | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04
- 19 February 2023Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 27 August 2022FC Schalke 04 1–6 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 13 February 2021Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
- 18 October 2020FC Schalke 04 1–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
- 7 June 2020Union Berlin 1–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
The result against the call
FC Schalke 04 won 3–1 at Union Berlin. The model had leaned towards a win for Union Berlin at 39% and given a win for FC Schalke 04 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Robin Gosens 25' for FC Schalke 04, Adil Aouchiche 46' for FC Schalke 04, Tim Skarke 90+6' for Union Berlin, Maximilian Wöber 90+13' for FC Schalke 04.
How the call on Union Berlin v FC Schalke 04 has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 32% / 29%: the biggest move is Union Berlin's chance of winning, down 15 points.
- Union Berlin win39%▼ −15
- Draw32%▲ +7
- FC Schalke 04 win29%▲ +8
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.