11 September 2026, 18:30 UTC

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 Bundesliga prediction & result

Berlin
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Union Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Union Berlin, 32% draw, 29% FC Schalke 04 — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Berlin at 39% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1728 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Berlin0%Draw1%FC Schalke 0499%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
🔁Dejan Ljubičićout: Junior Dina Ebimbe
25'
⚽Robin Gosens
Aljoscha Kemlein
45'
🔁Aljoscha Kemleinout: András Schäfer
45'
🔁Livan Burcuout: Marin Ljubičić
45'
46'
⚽Adil Aouchicheassist: Junior Chukwubuike Adamu
46'
•Adil Aouchiche
Marin Ljubičić
74'
🔁Emmanuel Latte Lathout: Tim Skarke
76'
Felix Uduokhai
78'
80'
🔁Robin Gosensout: Maximilian Wöber
80'
🔁Kenan Karamanout: Edin Džeko
80'
🔁Junior Chukwubuike Adamuout: Hwang Hee-Chan
🔁Michel Aebischerout: Janik Haberer
85'
🔁Woo-Yeong Jeongout: Robert Skov
90+1'
90+4'
🔁Adil Aouchicheout: Janik Bachmann
⚽Tim Skarkeassist: Tom Rothe
90+6'
90+9'
Loris Karius
90+13'
⚽Maximilian Wöberassist: Hwang Hee-Chan

Match stats — Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

66%Possession34%
20Shots19
8On target10
4Corners5

Line-ups

Union Berlin 4-1-2-1-2
  • 1F. RønnowG
  • 18J. JuranovićD
  • 14L. QuerfeldD
  • 2F. UduokhaiD
  • 15T. RotheD
  • 6A. KemleinM
  • 20M. AebischerM
  • 9Livan BurcuM
  • 8R. KhediraM
  • 11Jeong Woo-YeongF
  • 29E. Latte LathF
Substitutes
  • 24R. SkovM
  • 21T. SkarkeM
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 31M. RaabG
  • 27M. LjubičićF
  • 19J. HabererM
  • 49Linus GutherF
  • 28C. TrimmelD
  • 4Z. Van Den BoschD
Coach: M. Lustrinelli
FC Schalke 04 3-4-2-1
  • 1L. KariusG
  • 5T. BeckerD
  • 25N. KatićD
  • 4H. KuruçayD
  • 21D. LjubičićM
  • 23S. El-FaouziM
  • 13S. TanakaM
  • 8R. GosensM
  • 19K. KaramanM
  • 24A. AouchicheM
  • 20J. AdamuF
Substitutes
  • 39M. WöberD
  • 43M. AyhanD
  • 14J. BachmannM
  • 33Vitalie BeckerD
  • 29J. Dina EbimbeM
  • 10E. DžekoF
  • 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
  • 22K. MüllerG
  • 38L. VozarM
Coach: M. Muslić

Form going into Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Union Berlin

  • L0-4away to Bayer Leverkusen5 September 2026
  • D3-3Eintracht Frankfurt29 August 2026

FC Schalke 04

  • D0-0Bayern München5 September 2026
  • L0-3away to FC Augsburg30 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union Berlin3012410-61
11FC Schalke 04311134-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

  • 11 September 2026Union Berlin 1–3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 19 February 2023Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 27 August 2022FC Schalke 04 1–6 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 13 February 2021Union Berlin 0–0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
  • 18 October 2020FC Schalke 04 1–1 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 7 June 2020Union Berlin 1–1 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04

Union Berlin

  • T. Skarke2 goals

FC Schalke 04

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.