BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern Super League prediction & result
Final score: BSC Young Boys 3-3 FC Luzern.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% BSC Young Boys, 25% draw, 25% FC Luzern — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts BSC Young Boys at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern
Line-ups
- 1M. KellerG
- 27L. BlumD
- 30S. LauperD
- 23L. BenitoD
- 22I. SchmidtD
- 16C. FassnachtM
- 8A. GigovićM
- 6E. FernandesM
- 7A. VirginiusM
- 10A. SanchesM
- 99S. EssendeF
- 12Bahereba GuirassyF
- 34E. EtoskiM
- 33S. BukinacD
- 17S. JankoD
- 18J. MallG
- 13D. PechM
- 9K. SèneF
- 52N. TschanzM
- 54Chiagozie Silas UbakaD
- 30K. LeticaG
- 22R. FernandesD
- 13B. FreimannD
- 46B. FreimannD
- 14A. CigaņiksD
- 24T. OwusuM
- 80Mio ZimmermannM
- 6L. BertoneM
- 11M. Di GiustoM
- 19D. MikołajewskiF
- 15N. ToggenburgerF
- 21L. LüthiD
- 7A. OehlersF
- 10Lucas FerreiraM
- 1S. SimoniG
- 27L. VilligerF
- 29Levin WinklerM
- 5S. KneževićD
- 18Bongeli Faveurdi BeengaF
- 17Sandro WyssF
Form going into BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern
BSC Young Boys
- W4-2away to FC Zurich1 September 2026
- D3-3FC Basel 189329 August 2026
FC Luzern
- W2-1FC Vaduz2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Servette FC29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 19 |
| 6 | FC Luzern | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern
- 5 September 2026BSC Young Boys 3–3 FC LuzernSuper League
- 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers: BSC Young Boys and FC Luzern
BSC Young Boys
- S. Essende10 goals3 assists
- C. Fassnacht4 goals1 assist
- A. Sanches3 goals4 assists
FC Luzern
- D. Mikołajewski4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.