BSC Young Boys
vs
FC Luzern
Super League prediction
The model makes it 81% BSC Young Boys, 11% draw, 8% FC Luzern — fair odds of 1.23, 9.09 and 12.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1 (7%).
Expected goals: BSC Young Boys 3.84, FC Luzern 1.31.
Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%, under 2.5: 11%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
BSC Young Boys
- D2-2away to Lausanne8 August 2026
- W6-0away to FC Thun1 August 2026
- W4-2FC Sion26 July 2026
FC Luzern
- D2-2away to FC St. Gallen9 August 2026
- L0-3away to FC Sion2 August 2026
- L1-3FC Thun25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Luzern | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: BSC Young Boys vs FC Luzern
- 4 March 2026FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 14 December 2025BSC Young Boys 2–0 FC LuzernSuper League
- 14 September 2025FC Luzern 1–2 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 15 May 2025BSC Young Boys 2–1 FC LuzernSuper League
- 13 April 2025FC Luzern 5–0 BSC Young BoysSuper League
- 23 November 2024FC Luzern 1–1 BSC Young BoysSuper League
Leading scorers
BSC Young Boys
- L. Blum2 goals1 assists
FC Luzern
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
BSC Young Boys carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.37 for FC Luzern. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): BSC Young Boys W-W-D; FC Luzern L-L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 3.84 goals for BSC Young Boys and 1.31 for FC Luzern. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
BSC Young Boys rate 1.16 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Luzern rate 0.66 and 1.75.
That points to 89% for over two and a half goals and 72% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 3-1 (7%), 4-1 (7%), 2-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives BSC Young Boys the highest probability at 81%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.84 expected goals for BSC Young Boys against 1.31 for FC Luzern. BSC Young Boys's attack/defence rating is 1.16/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.75 for FC Luzern.