Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona Ligat Ha'al prediction & result
Final score: Hapoel Jerusalem 4-2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Hapoel Jerusalem, 33% draw, 40% Ironi Kiryat Shmona — fair odds of 3.70, 3.03 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 40% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Line-ups
- 55N. ZamirG
- 16O. AgvadishD
- 4Y. LaishD
- 3N. MalmudD
- 20O. NadirD
- 70S. ZuberuM
- 11Y. DistelfeldM
- 91C. TiehiM
- 25A. IdokoM
- 7O. AlmagorF
- 10V. DamascanF
- 1B. GordinG
- 18L. O. MizrahiD
- 22T. HaimovichD
- 14O. AbuhavM
- 23N. Shprauo
- 19N. Warsana
- 33I. DappaF
- 17A. Sani
- 13E. Shizinger
- 19D. TenenbaumG
- 28I. VaierD
- 26N. LjubisavljevicD
- 32S. DavidD
- 11S. SabahD
- 63A. SolaM
- 8Talles CostaM
- 7A. SagnaM
- 10A. SheratzkyM
- 21R. AbdullazadaM
- 39N. Gabay
- 1N. Djurkovic
- 20O. Darwish
- 17I. SholmysterD
- 6O. BenbenishtiD
- 44S. EdriD
- 24N. MarkovitchM
- 16M. Siman Tov
- 12J. HalabiF
- 30A. AsefaM
Form going into Hapoel Jerusalem vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Jerusalem
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Hapoel Petah Tikva29 August 2026
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Ironi Tiberias29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligat Ha'al table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hapoel Jerusalem | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Hapoel Jerusalem and Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Jerusalem
GoalsAssists
- A. Idoko42
- N. Vrasana40
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
No player in Ligat Ha'al's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hapoel Jerusalem beat Ironi Kiryat Shmona 4–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 40% and given a win for Hapoel Jerusalem 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Niv Michael Gabay 15' for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, Christ Junior Tiehi 52' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Ariel Sheratzky 56' for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, andrew idoko 58' for Hapoel Jerusalem, Sani Abdulsalam 66' for Hapoel Jerusalem, andrew idoko 73' for Hapoel Jerusalem. Sent off: Mor Simantov (Ironi Kiryat Shmona) 79'.