Brinje-Grosuplje
vs
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL prediction
Our model says: Brinje-Grosuplje 0–1 Olimpija Ljubljana
The model makes it 26% Brinje-Grosuplje, 29% draw, 45% Olimpija Ljubljana — fair odds of 3.85, 3.45 and 2.22.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Brinje-Grosuplje 0.97, Olimpija Ljubljana 1.43.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
One-sided: Olimpija Ljubljana are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Brinje-Grosuplje's rating is built from 15 Slovenian PrvaLiga matches and Olimpija Ljubljana's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Brinje-Grosuplje are 8th on 16 points from 15 games; Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th on 23 points from 15 games — 1. SNL.
- Brinje-Grosuplje are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Aluminij.
- Olimpija Ljubljana are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Nafta.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 5 September 2026, ended Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Brinje-Grosuplje.
More Slovenian PrvaLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Has the model earned this number?
Olimpija Ljubljana at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brinje-Grosuplje vs Olimpija Ljubljana
Brinje-Grosuplje
1. SNL
- W1-0Aluminij8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Mura1 November 2026
- D0-0Bravo29 October 2026
- L0-5away to Koper18 October 2026
- L1-2Maribor11 October 2026
Olimpija Ljubljana
1. SNL
- D1-1away to Nafta6 November 2026
- W1-0away to Maribor31 October 2026
- D1-1Celje28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Aluminij16 October 2026
- D3-3Mura10 October 2026
What these results say
- Brinje-Grosuplje failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Olimpija Ljubljana went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Olimpija Ljubljana scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Olimpija Ljubljana had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 16 |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brinje-Grosuplje vs Olimpija Ljubljana
- 5 September 2026Olimpija Ljubljana 3–0 Brinje-Grosuplje1. SNL
- 4 March 2026Brinje-Grosuplje 1–0 Olimpija LjubljanaCup
- 2 November 2023Brinje-Grosuplje 0–0 Olimpija LjubljanaCup
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brinje-Grosuplje a 0% chance of the title and Olimpija Ljubljana 6.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Brinje-Grosuplje against 1.43 for Olimpija Ljubljana. Brinje-Grosuplje's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.22 for Olimpija Ljubljana.
How the model reaches 45% for Olimpija Ljubljana to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Olimpija Ljubljana to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings add 9 points and Olimpija Ljubljana's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Brinje-Grosuplje's ratings37%+9
- Olimpija Ljubljana's ratings45%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Brinje-Grosuplje at home · Olimpija Ljubljana away
League matches only, 1. SNL, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. SNL matches this season: Brinje-Grosuplje 15, Olimpija Ljubljana 15.
Brinje-Grosuplje score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Olimpija Ljubljana have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Brinje-Grosuplje
- at Nafta5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 23%
- at Radomlje30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 30%
- at Maribor6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 16%
- vs Koper10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 23%
Olimpija Ljubljana
- vs Koper5 Dec · 1. SNLwin 39%
- vs Bravo30 Jan · 1. SNLwin 48%
- at Mura6 Feb · 1. SNLwin 44%
- vs Aluminij10 Feb · 1. SNLwin 50%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.