Sunderland
vs
Tottenham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham
The model makes it 35% Sunderland, 30% draw, 35% Tottenham — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.17, Tottenham 1.18.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Sunderland and Tottenham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Sunderland's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Tottenham's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Sunderland are 19th on 8 points from 10 games; Tottenham are 11th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Sunderland have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Chelsea.
- Tottenham have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Leeds.
- Last 6 meetings: Tottenham 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sunderland vs Tottenham
Has the model earned this number?
Sunderland at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sunderland vs Tottenham
Sunderland
Premier League
- W1-0Chelsea8 November 2026
- L1-3away to Coventry31 October 2026
- D0-0Leeds25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
Tottenham
Premier League
- L0-1away to Leeds7 November 2026
- W2-0Crystal Palace31 October 2026
- W2-0away to Chelsea24 October 2026
- W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
What these results say
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
- Tottenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Tottenham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sunderland vs Tottenham
- 12 April 2026Sunderland 1–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 4 January 2026Tottenham 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 31 January 2017Sunderland 0–0 TottenhamPremier League
- 18 September 2016Tottenham 1–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 16 January 2016Tottenham 4–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 13 September 2015Sunderland 0–1 TottenhamPremier League
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Tottenham (11th, with Sunderland 19th), while our numbers lean to Sunderland. Sunderland rate 0.81 in attack and 1.00 in defence, Tottenham 0.86 and 0.90 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sunderland the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sunderland against 1.18 for Tottenham. Sunderland's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.9 for Tottenham.
How the model reaches 35% for Sunderland to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sunderland to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Sunderland's ratings take away 2 points and Tottenham's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level39%−2
- Sunderland's ratings37%−2
- Tottenham's ratings35%−2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sunderland at home · Tottenham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SunderlandTottenham
Sunderland are 19th after 10 Premier League matches (between 10th and 20th so far); Tottenham are 11th after 10 (between 8th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Sunderland 10, Tottenham 10.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Tottenham have let in 2 there.
Tottenham score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sunderland have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Sunderland
- at Liverpool2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Newcastle6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at AC Milan10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 15%
Tottenham
- vs Fulham3 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 38%
- vs Arsenal6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- at Hull City14 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
- at Liverpool19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.