Daejeon Citizen
vs
Jeonbuk Motors
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Daejeon Citizen 2–1 Jeonbuk Motors
The model makes it 37% Daejeon Citizen, 29% draw, 34% Jeonbuk Motors — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Daejeon Citizen 1.46, Jeonbuk Motors 1.34.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Daejeon Citizen at 37% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors
Daejeon Citizen
- D1-1away to Incheon United20 September 2026
- D2-2Pohang Steelers12 September 2026
- W3-2FC Anyang9 September 2026
- W5-0away to Bucheon FC 19955 September 2026
- L1-3away to Jeju United FC30 August 2026
Jeonbuk Motors
- D2-2Gwangju FC20 September 2026
- L1-2FC Seoul12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Gangwon FC9 September 2026
- W2-0Pohang Steelers5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Incheon United30 August 2026
What these results say
- Daejeon Citizen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Daejeon Citizen conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Daejeon Citizen had three goals or more.
- Jeonbuk Motors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jeonbuk Motors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Daejeon Citizen | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 37 | +9 | 40 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Daejeon Citizen vs Jeonbuk Motors
- 21 July 2026Jeonbuk Motors 0–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 21 March 2026Daejeon Citizen 0–1 Jeonbuk MotorsK League 1
- 8 November 2025Jeonbuk Motors 3–1 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 13 September 2025Jeonbuk Motors 1–0 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
- 14 May 2025Daejeon Citizen 2–3 Jeonbuk MotorsFA Cup
- 6 May 2025Jeonbuk Motors 1–1 Daejeon CitizenK League 1
Leading scorers: Daejeon Citizen and Jeonbuk Motors
Daejeon Citizen
- Jeong Jae-Hee4 goals1 assists
Jeonbuk Motors
- Tiago Orobó5 goals
- Lee Seung-Woo4 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Daejeon Citizen carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.59 for Jeonbuk Motors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.34 for Jeonbuk Motors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Daejeon Citizen rate 0.88 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeonbuk Motors rate 0.70 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeonbuk Motors, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Daejeon Citizen the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen against 1.34 for Jeonbuk Motors. Daejeon Citizen's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.18 for Jeonbuk Motors.