9 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK Allsvenskan prediction & result

Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Referee: Richard Sundell, Sweden
Full time1 – 0

Final score: IFK Goteborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% IFK Goteborg, 26% draw, 38% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vasteras SK FK at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

IFK Goteborg95%Draw5%Vasteras SK FK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Bonaventure Lendambi
⚽Noah Tolfassist: oliver mansson
9'
63'
jonathan karlsson
66'
🔁Mattias Hellisdalout: karl gunnarsson
66'
🔁Bonaventure Lendambiout: Abdelrahman Saidi
oliver mansson
70'
🔁Nino Žugeljout: Kolbeinn Thordarson
72'
87'
🔁jens magnussonout: Jonathan Ring
87'
🔁jonathan karlssonout: Marcus Baggesen
90+1'
🔁Jack Tagessonout: Frédéric Nsabiyumva
90+6'
Elis Jager
90+9'
karl gunnarsson
90+9'
Abdelrahman Saidi
⚽Sam Larsson (pen)
90+9'

Match stats — IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

46%Possession54%
3Shots12
1On target2
2Corners6
0.95xG0.59

Goals against chances

IFK Goteborg1 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth
Vasteras SK FK0 from 0.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

IFK Goteborg 4-2-3-1
  • 12V. AnderssonG
  • 4K. AckermannD
  • 5J. BagerD
  • 26E. FasthD
  • 22Noah TolfD
  • 24O. ManssonM
  • 15D. KruseM
  • 11N. ŽugeljM
  • 8S. LarssonM
  • 14T. HeintzM
  • 7Alexander Illum SimmelhackF
Substitutes
  • 25E. BishesariG
  • 27A. BorénF
  • 9M. FengerF
  • 35N. LundenM
  • 21L. RadakovicM
  • 28I. SeiduD
  • 23K. ÞórðarsonM
  • 30T. CoimbraF
  • 20G. ErsoyD
Coach: Joachim Björklund
Vasteras SK FK 3-4-3
  • 34E. JägerG
  • 2H. MagnussonD
  • 4P. BondeD
  • 24J. TagessonD
  • 11S. GefvertM
  • 30M. HellisdalM
  • 8M. DiagneM
  • 15J. KarlssonM
  • 19J. MagnussonF
  • 16Bonaventure LendambiF
  • 17A. TaonsaF
Substitutes
  • 7A. BoudahF
  • 1A. FagerströmG
  • 5K. GunnarssonM
  • 18F. NsabiyumvaD
  • 10J. RingF
  • 21V. WernerssonD
  • 23P. AmoranD
  • 20M. LjungqvistD
  • 3M. BaggesenD
Coach: Alexander Rubin

Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
  • W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
  • W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
  • D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026

Vasteras SK FK

All competitions we cover

  • W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
  • W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
  • L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
  • W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
  • D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026

What these results say

  • IFK Goteborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • IFK Goteborg won 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Allsvenskan table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10IFK Goteborg2810993646-1039
6Vasteras SK FK2813694038+245

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK

  • 31 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 4–5 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 26 September 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
  • 21 July 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
  • 22 February 2020IFK Goteborg 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen

Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK

IFK Goteborg

GoalsAssists

  • S. Larsson83

Vasteras SK FK

GoalsAssists

  • A. Taonsa102
  • M. Ladefoged92

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

IFK Goteborg beat Vasteras SK FK 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Vasteras SK FK at 38% and given a win for IFK Goteborg 36%. The goal: Noah Tolf 9' for IFK Goteborg. Sent off: Elis Jager (Vasteras SK FK) 90+6'. On expected goals it finished 0.95–0.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vasteras SK FK a 17.1% chance to finish in the top four: 26.4% after a win, 12.3% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.3%, 7.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on IFK Goteborg v Vasteras SK FK has moved

First published on 25 Sep at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. IFK Goteborg win36%▲ +1
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Vasteras SK FK win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.