IFK Goteborg
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: IFK Goteborg 1–2 Vasteras SK FK
The model makes it 35% IFK Goteborg, 28% draw, 37% Vasteras SK FK — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.58, Vasteras SK FK 1.67.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasteras SK FK at 37% here. Across 2823 settled matches, 2151 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK
IFK Goteborg
- W1-0away to IF Brommapojkarna19 September 2026
- W2-1Halmstad12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Mjallby AIF7 September 2026
- W1-0Orgryte IS30 August 2026
- D1-1IF Elfsborg23 August 2026
Vasteras SK FK
- W2-0Malmo FF19 September 2026
- W4-1away to AIK Stockholm12 September 2026
- L0-1Sirius5 September 2026
- W3-1away to BK Hacken29 August 2026
- D0-0Kalmar FF23 August 2026
What these results say
- IFK Goteborg went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- IFK Goteborg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 32 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: IFK Goteborg vs Vasteras SK FK
- 31 May 2026Vasteras SK FK 4–5 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 26 September 2024Vasteras SK FK 1–1 IFK GoteborgAllsvenskan
- 21 July 2024IFK Goteborg 1–1 Vasteras SK FKAllsvenskan
- 22 February 2020IFK Goteborg 2–0 Vasteras SK FKSvenska Cupen
Leading scorers: IFK Goteborg and Vasteras SK FK
IFK Goteborg
- S. Larsson7 goals2 assists
- T. Heintz6 goals5 assists
Vasteras SK FK
- M. Ladefoged9 goals2 assists
- A. Taonsa8 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
IFK Goteborg carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.43 for Vasteras SK FK. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.67 for Vasteras SK FK. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
IFK Goteborg rate 0.63 in attack and 1.80 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vasteras SK FK rate 0.67 and 1.54.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1320 correct results out of 2823 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasteras SK FK the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for IFK Goteborg against 1.67 for Vasteras SK FK. IFK Goteborg's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.8 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.54 for Vasteras SK FK.