Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 3-2 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Club Queretaro, 28% draw, 28% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 44% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Guillermo AllisonG
- 24Bayron DuarteD
- 13Diego ReyesD
- 2Lucas AbasciaD
- 27Daniel ParraD
- 4Carlo Adriano GarcíaM
- 5Santiago HomenchenkoM
- 16Enzo GiménezM
- 11Mateo CoronelM
- 12Paulo VictorM
- 9Ali ÁvilaF
- 29Waldo MadridM
- 15Carlos VillanuevaD
- 30Mono MartínezM
- 22Jean UnjanqueM
- 1José HernándezG
- 18Erik DueñasM
- 20Alejandro AlcalaM
- 23Juan Eduardo RoblesM
- 35Juan Pablo CázaresM
- 1Nahuel GuzmánG
- 14Jesus GarzaD
- 28JoaquimD
- 23Rômulo ZwargD
- 32Vladimir LoroñaD
- 8Fernando GorriaránM
- 5César AraújoM
- 16Diego LainezM
- 11Juan BrunettaM
- 77Ozziel HerreraM
- 17Rodrigo AguirreF
- 2Francisco ReyesD
- 26Fernando OrdoñezD
- 6Juan VigónM
- 193Marcelo SalinasD
- 25Carlos RodríguezG
- 33Rafael GuerreroD
- 15Alan Javier FrancoD
- 198Isac GalvánM
- 205Antonio de María y CamposF
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Tigres UANL
All competitions we cover
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Club Queretaro | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 20 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
- 15 March 2026Tigres UANL 0–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 28 September 2025Club Queretaro 0–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 8 March 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 18 September 2024Club Queretaro 1–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 29 January 2024Club Queretaro 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Tigres UANL
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- S. Homenchenko52
- A. Ávila50
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta84
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Club Queretaro beat Tigres UANL 3–2. The model had made a win for Club Queretaro its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: A. Avila 11' for Club Queretaro, M. Coronel 18' for Club Queretaro, R. Aguirre 41' for Tigres UANL, J. Brunetta (penalty) 61' for Tigres UANL, S. Homenchenko (penalty) 90+12' for Club Queretaro. On expected goals it finished 2.02–2.66.