Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Club Queretaro 3-2 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Club Queretaro, 28% draw, 28% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Queretaro at 44% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25Guillermo AllisonG
- 24Bayron DuarteD
- 13Diego ReyesD
- 2Lucas AbasciaD
- 27Daniel ParraD
- 4Carlo Adriano GarcíaM
- 5Santiago HomenchenkoM
- 16Enzo GiménezM
- 11Mateo CoronelM
- 12Paulo VictorM
- 9Ali ÁvilaF
- 29Waldo MadridM
- 15Carlos VillanuevaD
- 30Mono MartínezM
- 22Jean UnjanqueM
- 1José HernándezG
- 18Erik DueñasM
- 20Alejandro AlcalaM
- 23Juan Eduardo RoblesM
- 35Juan Pablo CázaresM
- 1Nahuel GuzmánG
- 14Jesus GarzaD
- 28JoaquimD
- 23Rômulo ZwargD
- 32Vladimir LoroñaD
- 8Fernando GorriaránM
- 5César AraújoM
- 16Diego LainezM
- 11Juan BrunettaM
- 77Ozziel HerreraM
- 17Rodrigo AguirreF
- 2Francisco ReyesD
- 26Fernando OrdoñezD
- 6Juan VigónM
- 193Marcelo SalinasD
- 25Carlos RodríguezG
- 33Rafael GuerreroD
- 15Alan Javier FrancoD
- 198Isac GalvánM
- 205Antonio de María y CamposF
Form going into Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
Club Queretaro
- W2-1away to CF Pachuca27 July 2026
- L0-1Club America19 July 2026
Tigres UANL
- D2-2Atletico San Luis26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Club Tijuana17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Club Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Queretaro vs Tigres UANL
- 1 August 2026Club Queretaro 3–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 15 March 2026Tigres UANL 0–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 28 September 2025Club Queretaro 0–2 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 8 March 2025Tigres UANL 1–0 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 18 September 2024Club Queretaro 1–0 Tigres UANLLiga MX
- 29 January 2024Club Queretaro 1–1 Tigres UANLLiga MX
Leading scorers: Club Queretaro and Tigres UANL
Club Queretaro
- S. Homenchenko4 goals2 assists
- A. Ávila3 goals
Tigres UANL
- J. Brunetta3 goals4 assists
- R. Aguirre3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.