1 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Exbud Arena, Kielce
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Korona Kielce 0-2 Gornik Zabrze.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Korona Kielce, 26% draw, 38% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Gornik Zabrze at 38% here. Across 2555 settled matches, 1846 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Korona Kielce0%Draw4%Gornik Zabrze96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

41'
⚽Peter Federico González Carmonaassist: Jarosław Kubicki
53'
Erik Prekop
🔁Martin Remacleout: Camilo Mena
62'
64'
🔁Erik Janžaout: Ondrej Zmrzly
🔁Michael Ameyawout: Morgan Faßbender
70'
🔁Ondrej Lingrout: Simon Gustafsson
70'
71'
🔁Paulo Bernardoout: Malthe Hojholt
71'
🔁Erik Prekopout: Sondre Liseth
84'
🔁Jarosław Kubickiout: Lukáš Sadílek
84'
🔁Maksym Khlanout: Janis Antiste
Ariel Mosor
88'
🔁Patrik Hellebrandout: Daniel Bak
88'
kamil jakubczyk
89'
90+3'
⚽Peter Federico González Carmonaassist: Sondre Liseth

Match stats — Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze

32%Possession68%
2Shots14
0On target5
6Corners3

Line-ups

Korona Kielce 4-5-1
  • 1X. DziekońskiG
  • 71W. DługoszD
  • 23S. RubežićD
  • 2A. MosórD
  • 6M. PięczekD
  • 32O. LingrM
  • 35Kamil JakubczykM
  • 8M. RemacleM
  • 18P. HellebrandM
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 14M. StępińskiF
Substitutes
  • 67N. BarczakD
  • 44K. SotiriouD
  • 24B. SmolarczykD
  • 10NonoM
  • 30C. MenaM
  • 11K. MatuszewskiD
  • 87R. MamlaG
  • 99Daniel BakF
  • 21K. CiszekD
Coach: J. Zielinski
Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 61M. SáčekD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 8Paulo BernardoM
  • 19PeterF
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 33M. KhlanF
Substitutes
  • 66M. DietzD
  • 28B. DonioM
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 29W. KaniaG
  • 23S. LisethF
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 18L. SadílekM
  • 24K. SemikM
Coach: M. Gašparík

Form going into Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze

Korona Kielce

  • L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 July 2026

Gornik Zabrze

  • D1-1Fenerbahçe29 July 2026
  • W2-1Slask Wroclaw25 July 2026
  • L0-1away to Fenerbahçe21 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Korona Kielce833298+112
1Gornik Zabrze8701168+821

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Korona Kielce vs Gornik Zabrze

  • 15 September 2026Korona Kielce 0–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 18 April 2026Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 18 October 2025Korona Kielce 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 24 May 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
  • 1 December 2024Korona Kielce 2–4 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 19 February 2024Gornik Zabrze 3–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Korona Kielce and Gornik Zabrze

Korona Kielce

  • M. Stępiński4 goals
  • M. Faßbender3 goals

Gornik Zabrze

  • Peter4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.