San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 0-4 Orlando City SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 60% San Jose Earthquakes, 18% draw, 22% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.67, 5.56 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 60% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 1,294 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 57.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Angus GunnG
- 28Benjamin KikanovićD
- 5Daniel MunieD
- 18Reid RobertsD
- 2Jamar RickettsD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 14Ronaldo VieiraM
- 7Ousseni BoudaM
- 20Nick FernandezM
- 11Timo WernerM
- 19Preston JuddF
- 16Jack SkahanM
- 79Darius JohnsonF
- 3Paul MarieD
- 40Jonathan GonzalezM
- 6Ian HarkesM
- 31Francesco MontaliG
- 4Dave RomneyD
- 25Max FlorianiD
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 71Maxime CrépeauG
- 24Griffin DorseyD
- 4David BrekaloD
- 6Robin JanssonD
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 77Iván AnguloM
- 8Braian OjedaM
- 20Eduard AtuestaM
- 11Tiago SouzaM
- 7Antoine GriezmannF
- 22Justin EllisF
- 14Tyrese SpicerF
- 44Bernardo RheinF
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 19Zakaria TaifiM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 29Tahir Reid-BrownD
- 57Iago SilvaD
- 16Wilder CartagenaM
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 54 | 47 | +7 | 49 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 62 | 74 | -12 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
- 19 May 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 22 June 2021Orlando City SC 5–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2019San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 21 April 2018Orlando City SC 3–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2017San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd162
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda164
- A. Griezmann147
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Orlando City SC won 4–0 at San Jose Earthquakes. The model had leaned towards a win for San Jose Earthquakes at 60% and given a win for Orlando City SC 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: D. Brekalo 7' for Orlando City SC, I. Angulo 29' for Orlando City SC, A. Griezmann 48' for Orlando City SC, B. Ojeda 73' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 1.11–1.78.