23 July 2026, 02:30 UTC

San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Major League Soccer prediction & result

PayPal Park, San Jose

Full time0 – 4

Final score: San Jose Earthquakes 0-4 Orlando City SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% San Jose Earthquakes, 18% draw, 22% Orlando City SC — fair odds of 1.67, 5.56 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 15 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts San Jose Earthquakes at 60% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 630 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Brekaloassist: E. Atuesta

29'

⚽I. Anguloassist: E. Atuesta

36'

E. Atuesta

T. Werner

45+1'

🔁N. Fernandezout: J. Skahan

46'

48'

⚽A. Griezmannassist: J. Ellis

R. Vieira

52'

59'

🔁Tiagoout: T. Spicer

P. Judd

67'

73'

⚽B. Ojedaassist: E. Atuesta

🔁J. Rickettsout: P. Marie

74'

🔁T. Wernerout: D. Johnson

74'

79'

🔁A. Gomezout: B. Rhein

79'

🔁E. Atuestaout: Luis Otavio

79'

🔁I. Anguloout: H. Sarajian

80'

H. Sarajian

🔁R. Vieiraout: J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza

81'

84'

🔁J. Ellisout: Z. Taifi

🔁B. Lerouxout: I. Harkes

86'

D. Munie

90+4'

Match stats — San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC

52%Possession48%

11Shots15

7On target8

3Corners2

1.11xG1.78

Goals against chances

San Jose Earthquakes0 from 1.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Orlando City SC4 from 1.78 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1

1Angus GunnG
28Benjamin KikanovićD
5Daniel MunieD
18Reid RobertsD
2Jamar RickettsD
34Beau LerouxM
14Ronaldo VieiraM
7Ousseni BoudaM
20Nick FernandezM
11Timo WernerM
19Preston JuddF

Substitutes

16Jack SkahanM
79Darius JohnsonF
3Paul MarieD
40Jonathan GonzalezM
6Ian HarkesM
31Francesco MontaliG
4Dave RomneyD
25Max FlorianiD
17Jack JasinskiD

Coach: Bruce Arena

Orlando City SC 4-4-2

71Maxime CrépeauG
24Griffin DorseyD
4David BrekaloD
6Robin JanssonD
3Adrián MarínD
77Iván AnguloM
8Braian OjedaM
20Eduard AtuestaM
11Tiago SouzaM
7Antoine GriezmannF
22Justin EllisF

Substitutes

14Tyrese SpicerF
44Bernardo RheinF
5Luis OtávioM
23Harvey SarajianF
19Zakaria TaifiM
12Javier OteroG
29Tahir Reid-BrownD
57Iago SilvaD
16Wilder CartagenaM

Coach: Oscar Pareja

Head-to-head: San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC

23 July 2026San Jose Earthquakes 0–4 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
19 May 2024San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
22 June 2021Orlando City SC 5–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
1 September 2019San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
21 April 2018Orlando City SC 3–2 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
18 May 2017San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City SC