Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 2-2 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Portland Timbers, 24% draw, 33% FC Dallas — fair odds of 2.33, 4.17 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 43% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41James PantemisG
- 5Brandon ByeD
- 20Finn SurmanD
- 4Kamal MillerD
- 27Jímer ForyD
- 30José CaicedoM
- 7Ariel LassiterM
- 17Cole BassettM
- 10David Pereira Da CostaM
- 11Antony AlvesM
- 19Kevin KelsyF
- 21Diego CharáM
- 99Kristoffer VeldeF
- 9Felipe MoraF
- 28Alexander AravenaF
- 25Trey MuseG
- 23Ian SmithD
- 15Eric MillerD
- 6Alex BonetigD
- 80Joao OrtízM
- 42DanielG
- 14Herman JohanssonD
- 3Osaze UrhoghideD
- 18Shaq MooreD
- 32Nolan NorrisD
- 21Joaquín ValienteM
- 12Christian CappisM
- 55KaickM
- 8Patrickson DelgadoM
- 10Santiago MorenoF
- 23Logan FarringtonF
- 77Bernard KamungoF
- 28Sam SarverF
- 9Petar MusaF
- 25Sebastien IbeaghaD
- 6Ran BinyaminM
- 40Jonathan SiroisG
- 5Lalas AbubakarD
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 11Anderson JulioF
Form going into Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
Portland Timbers
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
FC Dallas
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs FC Dallas
- 23 July 2026Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 28 September 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2025FC Dallas 2–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 6 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 5 July 2024FC Dallas 3–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 12 June 2023Portland Timbers 1–0 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and FC Dallas
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.