Sportivo Ameliano
vs
Rubio NU
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Ameliano 2–1 Rubio NU
The model makes it 50% Sportivo Ameliano, 26% draw, 24% Rubio NU — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Sportivo Ameliano 2.14, Rubio NU 1.14.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sportivo Ameliano are 7th on 18 points from 12 games; Rubio NU are 10th on 9 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Ameliano are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Nacional Asuncion.
- Rubio NU are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to 2 de Mayo.
- Last 5 meetings: Sportivo Ameliano 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 28 July 2026, ended Rubio NU 1–1 Sportivo Ameliano.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sportivo Ameliano vs Rubio NU
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sportivo Ameliano at 50% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Rubio NU
Sportivo Ameliano
- D1-1away to Nacional Asuncion25 September 2026
- D1-1away to Libertad Asuncion19 September 2026
- W1-0Club Sp. San Lorenzo11 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sportivo Luqueno6 September 2026
- L0-3Sportivo Trinidense2 September 2026
Rubio NU
- D2-22 de Mayo26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno19 September 2026
- L0-1Nacional Asuncion13 September 2026
- L2-4away to Libertad Asuncion6 September 2026
- W3-1Club Sp. San Lorenzo1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Ameliano scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Ameliano conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rubio NU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sportivo Ameliano | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 18 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Rubio NU
- 28 July 2026Rubio NU 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 23 March 2026Rubio NU 1–2 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 January 2026Sportivo Ameliano 2–2 Rubio NUDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 October 2021Rubio NU 0–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Intermedia
- 5 July 2021Sportivo Ameliano 1–0 Rubio NUDivision Intermedia
Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Rubio NU
Sportivo Ameliano
- E. Moreira5 goals
- C. Ocampos4 goals2 assists
- R. Torales4 goals1 assist
Rubio NU
- R. Ruiz Díaz3 goals1 assist
- J. Vallejos3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sportivo Ameliano carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.24 for Rubio NU. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.14 for Rubio NU. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Ameliano rate 0.62 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rubio NU rate 0.62 and 2.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Ameliano a 0.8% chance of the title and Rubio NU 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Ameliano the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Sportivo Ameliano against 1.14 for Rubio NU. Sportivo Ameliano's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.12 for Rubio NU.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Ameliano at home · Rubio NU away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Ameliano 12, Rubio NU 12.
Sportivo Ameliano score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Rubio NU have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Ameliano
- at 2 de Mayo14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- at Cerro Porteno21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 25%
- vs Olimpia29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 32%
- at Deportivo Recoleta5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- vs Club Guarani8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 34%
Rubio NU
- vs Olimpia14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 27%
- at Deportivo Recoleta21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- vs Club Guarani29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 29%
- at Sportivo Trinidense5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 18%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.