12 September 2026, 23:30 UTC

Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC Major League Soccer prediction & result

Exploria Stadium, Orlando
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Orlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Orlando City SC, 28% draw, 30% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Orlando City SC at 42% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Orlando City SC99%Draw1%Toronto FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luis Otávio
20'
Joran Gerbet
27'
•Walker Zimmerman
33'
•Martín Ojeda
45+5'
⚽A. Griezmannassist: Z. Taifi
45'
🔁J. Gerbetout: W. Cartagena
46'
46'
🔁T. Corbeanuout: A. Coello
54'
Derrick Etienne
60'
Alonso Coello
🔁T. Spicerout: B. Rhein
64'
🔁M. Ojedaout: D. Dike
64'
65'
🔁Matheus Pereiraout: N. Gomis
65'
🔁D. Etienneout: M. Henry
🔁A. Griezmannout: J. Ellis
70'
71'
🔁M. Cimermancicout: E. Aristizabal
🔁M. Pasalicout: H. Sarajian
80'
81'
🔁B. Kuscevicout: R. Edwards
⚽H. Sarajianassist: D. Dike
82'
Iago Silva
90+1'
⚽I. Anguloassist: J. Ellis
90'

Match stats — Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

58%Possession42%
13Shots18
8On target4
4Corners3
2.05xG2.51

Goals against chances

Orlando City SC3 from 2.05 xGmore than the chances were worth
Toronto FC0 from 2.51 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1
  • 71M. CrepeauG
  • 19Z. TaifiD
  • 4D. BrekaloD
  • 57Iago TeodoroD
  • 77I. AnguloD
  • 5Luis OtavioM
  • 35J. GerbetM
  • 87M. PasalicM
  • 10M. OjedaM
  • 14T. SpicerM
  • 7A. GriezmannF
Substitutes
  • 12J. OteroG
  • 6R. JanssonD
  • 16W. CartagenaM
  • 20E. AtuestaM
  • 44B. RheinF
  • 22J. EllisF
  • 9D. DikeF
  • 11TiagoF
  • 23H. SarajianF
Coach: Oscar Pareja
Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 25W. ZimmermanD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 71M. CimermancicM
  • 7T. CorbeanuM
  • 20D. SalloiM
  • 11D. EtienneM
  • 9J. SargentF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 19K. FranklinD
  • 44R. EdwardsD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 14A. CoelloM
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 78M. HenryM
  • 17E. AristizabalF
Coach: Robin Fraser

Form going into Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

Orlando City SC

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
  • W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
  • D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
  • W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
  • L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026

Toronto FC

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
  • D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
  • D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
  • D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026

What these results say

  • Orlando City SC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Orlando City SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Orlando City SC had three goals or more.
  • Toronto FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Toronto FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Orlando City SC32127136274-1243
11Toronto FC32912115060-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC

  • 18 October 2025Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 3 July 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 27 April 2024Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 21 October 2023Toronto FC 0–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
  • 4 July 2023Orlando City SC 4–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Toronto FC

Orlando City SC

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ojeda164
  • A. Griezmann147

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 50 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Orlando City SC beat Toronto FC 3–0. The model had made a win for Orlando City SC its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Griezmann 45' for Orlando City SC, H. Sarajian 82' for Orlando City SC, I. Angulo 90' for Orlando City SC. On expected goals it finished 2.05–2.51.

How the call on Orlando City SC v Toronto FC has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Toronto FC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Orlando City SC win42%▼ −3
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Toronto FC win30%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.