Orlando City SC
vs
Toronto FC
Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Orlando City SC, 28% draw, 27% Toronto FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Orlando City SC 1.83, Toronto FC 1.14.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 45% here. Across 2437 settled matches, 1092 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
- W3-2away to Atlanta United FC9 September 2026
- W1-0San Diego5 September 2026
- D3-3away to Minnesota United FC30 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake22 August 2026
- L1-2Chicago Fire19 August 2026
Toronto FC
- W2-1Nashville SC9 September 2026
- D4-4Chicago Fire5 September 2026
- D1-1New York City FC29 August 2026
- W2-1away to Inter Miami22 August 2026
- D3-3Charlotte19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Toronto FC
- 18 October 2025Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 2 March 2025Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 July 2024Toronto FC 1–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Orlando City SC 1–2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 October 2023Toronto FC 0–2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 4 July 2023Orlando City SC 4–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Toronto FC
Orlando City SC
- M. Ojeda11 goals1 assists
Toronto FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Written before kick-off and left as it stood — the reading below is the model's pre-match case, not a view formed after the result.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Orlando City SC carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.52 for Toronto FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Orlando City SC and 1.14 for Toronto FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Orlando City SC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.25 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Toronto FC rate 0.76 and 1.48.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1151 correct results out of 2437 settled predictions (47%), with 230 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Orlando City SC the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Orlando City SC against 1.14 for Toronto FC. Orlando City SC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.25 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.48 for Toronto FC.