Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mjallby AIF, 28% draw, 27% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Mjallby AIF at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35A. LundinG
- 33T. MiettinenD
- 5Abdullah IqbalD
- 24T. PetterssonD
- 14Villiam GranathM
- 7V. GustafsonM
- 22J. GustavssonM
- 25M. NielsenM
- 23Á. SamuelsenF
- 18J. BergströmF
- 10J. KjærF
- 27L. TidstrandM
- 3M. AgnarssonD
- 6M. EnggårdM
- 1S. HansenG
- 26I. HoffmannD
- 29Olle LindbergM
- 4A. NorénD
- 2L. SvanbergD
- 39R. LeanderssonM
- 38M. IgonenG
- 6D. SundgrenD
- 3Nikolai SkusethD
- 2Ahmad FaqaD
- 13M. HamiltonD
- 16S. OhlssonD
- 10N. MilleskogM
- 8B. HusseinM
- 17Arman TaranisM
- 22N. Girmai NetabayF
- 14L. FritzsonF
- 11D. VukojevićF
- 7S. OhlssonD
- 15N. MoroD
- 1W. JakobssonG
- 23R. DzabicM
- 18S. DiataraD
- 20E. BarsoumM
- 28J. HernandezD
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
All competitions we cover
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
- L0-2Djurgardens IF3 September 2026
Degerfors IF
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
- L0-2away to IF Brommapojkarna23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 28 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 48 | -25 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
- 9 May 2026Degerfors IF 1–4 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 13 September 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 27 April 2025Mjallby AIF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 November 2023Degerfors IF 1–2 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 16 April 2023Mjallby AIF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
GoalsAssists
- J. Bergström100
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 23 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mjallby AIF at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Arman Taranis 52' for Degerfors IF, Jeppe Kjaer Jensen 56' for Mjallby AIF. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.65.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mjallby AIF a 10.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.6% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 20.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.9%.
For Degerfors IF the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 48.6% going in: 31.5% after a win, 47.8% after a draw, 58.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 47.8%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Allsvenskan season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Mjallby AIF v Degerfors IF has moved
First published on 26 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Mjallby AIF's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Mjallby AIF win45%▲ +3
- Draw28%▼ −2
- Degerfors IF win27%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.