Mjallby AIF
vs
Degerfors IF
Allsvenskan prediction
Our model says: Mjallby AIF 1–0 Degerfors IF
The model makes it 42% Mjallby AIF, 30% draw, 28% Degerfors IF — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.52, Degerfors IF 1.02.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mjallby AIF at 42% here. Across 2837 settled matches, 1308 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
- L0-3Gais20 September 2026
- D1-1away to AIK Stockholm16 September 2026
- D1-1away to BK Hacken11 September 2026
- L1-4IFK Goteborg7 September 2026
- L0-2Djurgardens IF3 September 2026
Degerfors IF
- L0-1Hammarby FF20 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sirius14 September 2026
- W2-0Halmstad5 September 2026
- L0-2away to IF Elfsborg29 August 2026
- L0-2away to IF Brommapojkarna23 August 2026
What these results say
- Mjallby AIF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Mjallby AIF conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Degerfors IF had two goals or fewer.
- Degerfors IF failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Degerfors IF failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF
- 9 May 2026Degerfors IF 1–4 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 13 September 2025Degerfors IF 0–1 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 27 April 2025Mjallby AIF 4–1 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 12 November 2023Degerfors IF 1–2 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
- 16 April 2023Mjallby AIF 2–0 Degerfors IFAllsvenskan
- 10 September 2022Degerfors IF 0–0 Mjallby AIFAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF
Mjallby AIF
- J. Bergström9 goals
Degerfors IF
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.22 for Degerfors IF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.02 for Degerfors IF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.59 in attack and 1.72 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Degerfors IF rate 0.43 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1326 correct results out of 2837 settled predictions (47%), with 271 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mjallby AIF the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.02 for Degerfors IF. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/1.58 for Degerfors IF.