Birmingham
vs
Millwall
Championship prediction
Our model says: Birmingham 1–0 Millwall
The model makes it 45% Birmingham, 28% draw, 27% Millwall — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Birmingham 1.53, Millwall 1.04.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Birmingham's rating is built from 57 Championship matches and Millwall's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,245 matches.
Key facts
- Birmingham are 4th on 20 points from 11 games; Millwall are 12th on 15 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Birmingham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to QPR.
- Millwall have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Lincoln.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 25 February 2026, ended Millwall 3–0 Birmingham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Birmingham vs Millwall
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Birmingham at 45% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Birmingham vs Millwall
Birmingham
- W3-0QPR17 October 2026
- W4-0Preston13 October 2026
- W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
- D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
Millwall
- D2-2Lincoln17 October 2026
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
What these results say
- Birmingham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Birmingham won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Birmingham | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 12 | Millwall | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Birmingham vs Millwall
- 25 February 2026Millwall 3–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 4 November 2025Birmingham 4–0 MillwallChampionship
- 9 March 2024Millwall 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 2 September 2023Birmingham 1–1 MillwallChampionship
- 18 April 2023Millwall 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 2 November 2022Birmingham 0–0 MillwallChampionship
Leading scorers: Birmingham and Millwall
Birmingham
GoalsAssists
- L. Millar43
- A. Priske41
Millwall
GoalsAssists
- L. Dykes41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Birmingham carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.61 for Millwall. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.53 goals for Birmingham and 1.04 for Millwall. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Birmingham rate 0.80 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Millwall rate 0.78 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Birmingham a 10.1% chance of the title and Millwall 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Birmingham the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Birmingham against 1.04 for Millwall. Birmingham's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.27 for Millwall.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Birmingham at home · Millwall away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BirminghamMillwall
Birmingham are 3rd after 11 Championship matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Millwall are 11th after 11 (between 1st and 11th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Birmingham 11, Millwall 11.
Birmingham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Millwall have let in 3 there.
Millwall score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Birmingham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Birmingham
- vs Swansea7 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Stoke City21 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Burnley25 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Millwall
- at West Brom7 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs QPR21 Nov · Championshipwin 46%
- at Stoke City25 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.