Austria Vienna
vs
Lask Linz
The model makes it 27% Austria Vienna, 25% draw, 48% Lask Linz — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Austria Vienna 1.22, Lask Linz 1.68.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Austria Vienna
- L0-3away to Wolfsberger AC2 August 2026
Lask Linz
- W3-0Grazer AK31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 2 | Lask Linz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Austria Vienna vs Lask Linz
- 17 May 2026Austria Vienna 0–3 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 5 April 2026Lask Linz 4–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 1 March 2026Austria Vienna 2–2 Lask LinzBundesliga
- 17 August 2025Lask Linz 2–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 1 December 2024Lask Linz 1–3 Austria ViennaBundesliga
- 25 August 2024Austria Vienna 2–1 Lask LinzBundesliga
Leading scorers
Austria Vienna
No league goals recorded yet.
Lask Linz
- S. Adeniran2 goals
- C. Lang1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Austria Vienna carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.58 for Lask Linz. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Austria Vienna L; Lask Linz W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Austria Vienna and 1.68 for Lask Linz. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Austria Vienna rate 0.47 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lask Linz rate 0.80 and 1.37.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 58% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 211 correct results out of 450 settled predictions (47%), with 45 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lask Linz the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Austria Vienna against 1.68 for Lask Linz. Austria Vienna's attack/defence rating is 0.47/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.37 for Lask Linz.