Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis Super League 1 prediction & result
Final score: Kalamata 2-3 Aris Thessalonikis.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Kalamata, 30% draw, 25% Aris Thessalonikis — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Kalamata at 45%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Kalamata vs Aris Thessalonikis
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Giannis GeliosG
- 22Petros KaloutsikidisD
- 4Stefanos StroungisD
- 97RodriguesD
- 17Julio AlonsoD
- 77Kenneth VargasM
- 7Juan CataldiM
- 6Djibril DiarraM
- 20Ahmad Mendes MoreiraM
- 24Erik HamzaF
- 9Jovanny BolívarF
- 12Ilias ChatzitheodoridisD
- 29Uroš IgnjatovićD
- 32Julián BonettoF
- 8Argyrios LiatsikourasM
- 44Axel GuessandD
- 40Nikola VasiljevićG
- 70Pavlos VarelasG
- 18Panagiotis PanagiotouD
- 19Junior BakayokoD
- 33Ricardo VelhoG
- 2Jeremy PetrisD
- 4FabianoD
- 97Fredrik JensenD
- 27Noah FadigaD
- 20Tom Dele-BashiruM
- 10Uroš RačićM
- 34Sebastián PalaciosM
- 7Benjamín GarréM
- 70Giannis GianniotasM
- 17Rafa MirF
- 49Othmane BoussaidM
- 19Migouel AlfarelaF
- 80Loren MorónF
- 6Kostas GalanopoulosM
- 1Sokratis DioudisG
- 24Apostolos BarmpopoulosG
- 88Marko KerkezM
- 45Matar ThiamD
- 30Christos KamtsisD
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kalamata | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Kalamata and Aris Thessalonikis
Kalamata
GoalsAssists
- D. Kurminowski50
- J. Bolívar30
Aris Thessalonikis
GoalsAssists
- Fabiano40
- C. Kouamé30
- T. Kadewere30
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Aris Thessalonikis won 3–2 at Kalamata. The model had leaned towards a win for Kalamata at 45% and given a win for Aris Thessalonikis 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Bolivar 41' for Kalamata, U. Racic (penalty) 45' for Aris Thessalonikis, K. Vargas 60' for Kalamata, Fabiano 88' for Aris Thessalonikis, Fabiano 90' for Aris Thessalonikis. Sent off: J. Bolivar (Kalamata) 85'. On expected goals it finished 1.41–2.69.