Al Ahli Doha
vs
Al-Sailiya
Stars League prediction
Our model says: Al Ahli Doha 2–1 Al-Sailiya
The model makes it 44% Al Ahli Doha, 26% draw, 30% Al-Sailiya — fair odds of 2.27, 3.85 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Al Ahli Doha 2.14, Al-Sailiya 1.54.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ahli Doha at 44% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 1297 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya
Al Ahli Doha
- L0-3away to Al-Rayyan SC11 September 2026
- W1-0Qatar SC3 September 2026
- D3-3Lusail City28 August 2026
- L1-3away to Al Sadd22 August 2026
Al-Sailiya
- L3-6Al Sadd10 September 2026
- L0-2Al-Arabi SC3 September 2026
- L2-3away to Al Shahaniya29 August 2026
- L0-2away to Al-Duhail SC22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Stars League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Al Ahli Doha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Al-Sailiya | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya
- 3 April 2026Al Ahli Doha 2–2 Al-SailiyaStars League
- 19 January 2026Al-Sailiya 2–1 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
- 1 November 2025Al-Sailiya 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 29 April 2023Al Ahli Doha 0–4 Al-SailiyaStars League
- 12 January 2023Al-Sailiya 1–2 Al Ahli DohaStars League
- 25 September 2022Al-Sailiya 2–3 Al Ahli DohaQSL Cup
Leading scorers: Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya
Al Ahli Doha
No player in Stars League's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Al-Sailiya
- Ali Olwan2 goals
- Ahmed Doozandeh1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Al Ahli Doha carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.16 for Al-Sailiya. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.14 goals for Al Ahli Doha and 1.54 for Al-Sailiya. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ahli Doha rate 0.59 in attack and 1.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Al-Sailiya rate 0.51 and 2.03.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ahli Doha the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Al Ahli Doha against 1.54 for Al-Sailiya. Al Ahli Doha's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.03 for Al-Sailiya.