Regular Season - 6 · 16 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger Ligue 1 postponed match

PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 41% Ben Aknoun, 26% draw, 33% USM Alger — fair odds of 2.44, 3.85 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Ben Aknoun 1.64, USM Alger 1.43.

Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger

62%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ben Aknoun win Draw USM Alger win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–28%
  4. 1–07%
  5. 2–26%
  6. 2–06%
  7. 0–16%

Scores read Ben Aknoun first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 46%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ben Aknoun at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger

Ben Aknoun

  • D2-2JS El Biar7 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Khenchela18 September 2026
  • D2-2US Biskra10 September 2026
  • W1-0away to ES Setif3 September 2026

USM Alger

  • W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
  • L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
  • W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026

What these results say

  • Ben Aknoun went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Ben Aknoun failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Ben Aknoun413065+16
3USM Alger531163+310

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger

  • 4 June 2026Ben Aknoun 2–2 USM AlgerLigue 1
  • 18 December 2025USM Alger 2–2 Ben AknounLigue 1
  • 30 May 2024USM Alger 0–2 Ben AknounLigue 1
  • 23 January 2024Ben Aknoun 1–2 USM AlgerLigue 1

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Ben Aknoun carry a model rating of 6.29 against 6.37 for USM Alger. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for Ben Aknoun and 1.43 for USM Alger. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Ben Aknoun rate 0.66 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; USM Alger rate 0.58 and 1.53.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour USM Alger, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ben Aknoun the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Ben Aknoun against 1.43 for USM Alger. Ben Aknoun's attack/defence rating is 0.66/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.53 for USM Alger.