Regular Season - 6 · 16 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

MC Alger vs ES Setif Ligue 1 postponed match

PostponedNot played

This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.

Before the match was called off the model made it 50% MC Alger, 28% draw, 22% ES Setif — fair odds of 2.00, 3.57 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).

Expected goals: MC Alger 1.61, ES Setif 0.89.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to MC Alger: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

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Model insights: MC Alger vs ES Setif

48%
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
54%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

MC Alger win Draw ES Setif win
  1. 1–013%
  2. 1–112%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 2–19%
  5. 0–09%
  6. 0–17%
  7. 3–06%

Scores read MC Alger first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 33%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts MC Alger at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into MC Alger vs ES Setif

MC Alger

  • D1-1away to ASO Chlef13 October 2026
  • W1-0Témouchent9 October 2026
  • W2-0MB Rouisset18 September 2026

ES Setif

  • D1-1JS Kabylie14 October 2026
  • D0-0away to MC Oran8 October 2026
  • W5-1CS Constantine19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to CR Belouizdad11 September 2026
  • L0-1Ben Aknoun3 September 2026

What these results say

  • ES Setif failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • ES Setif conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for ES Setif had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5MC Alger321041+37
9ES Setif512264+25

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: MC Alger vs ES Setif

  • 20 May 2026ES Setif 1–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 29 December 2025MC Alger 2–0 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 19 May 2025MC Alger 4–1 ES SetifLigue 1
  • 1 December 2024ES Setif 0–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 2 March 2024ES Setif 1–0 MC AlgerLigue 1
  • 6 October 2023MC Alger 5–3 ES SetifLigue 1

The two sides

MC Alger carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.34 for ES Setif. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for MC Alger and 0.89 for ES Setif. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

MC Alger rate 0.62 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Setif rate 0.58 and 1.60.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives MC Alger the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for MC Alger against 0.89 for ES Setif. MC Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.6 for ES Setif.